I really don't know what will happen here long term as we are getting conflicting readings but odds seem good that equities will pullback May/ Jun into the middle of the range. Approximately 198 in SPY. That said, I am not short as I would prefer to see if and when we get a bounce this week. Tech is very oversold and daily charts are issuing pretty promising reversal candles. What happens after a few days though is unknown and I may be looking at going short on a fading bounce.
I have a boatload of GLD Aug 113 calls and am going to make a slight adjustment and push them out to Sept 30 115 calls. Also will probably add SLV Oct calls. I am looking for a target of 140 in GLD.
One interesting thing is the USD. We are at a zone of what is typically a bounce but if the level fails there could be much more room to the downside.
Seasonality presents some headwinds for May/ June courtesy of Macro Man
May/ June not friendly to the bulls recently.
AAPL might be poised for a technical bounce and will be looking at very small position of Jun 90 calls tomorrow.
Sunday, May 1, 2016
May 1 - Intermediate term sell signal SPY on Friday, GLD looks like it is starting another leg up
at May 01, 2016
Very bearish now and looking for a retest of lows in 2-3 weeks. I have puts in SPY, AAPL, GOOS, and GLD. Calls in RIG every major dro...
I am liking the set up for XLE a lot now and XBI I am hoping for some settling so I can board the train. Maybe within 1-2 weeks? Missed ...
Didn't make any changes Fri except close the GLD short as the miners + silver started showing strength and an oversold signal on the 2 h...