Sunday, May 1, 2016

May 1 - Intermediate term sell signal SPY on Friday, GLD looks like it is starting another leg up

I really don't know what will happen here long term as we are getting conflicting readings but odds seem good that equities will pullback May/ Jun into the middle of the range.  Approximately 198 in SPY.  That said, I am not short as I would prefer to see if and when we get a bounce this week.  Tech is very oversold and daily charts are issuing pretty promising reversal candles.  What happens after  a few days though is unknown and I may be looking at going short on a fading bounce.

I have a boatload of GLD Aug 113 calls and am going to make a slight adjustment and push them out to Sept 30 115 calls.  Also will probably add SLV Oct calls.  I am looking for a target of 140 in GLD.

One interesting thing is the USD.  We are at a zone of what is typically a bounce but if the level fails there could be much more room to the downside.

Seasonality presents some headwinds for May/ June courtesy of Macro Man

May/ June not friendly to the bulls recently.

AAPL might be poised for a technical bounce and will be looking at very small position of Jun 90 calls tomorrow.
 Previous gap downs have been met with some level of gap fill previously.
 SPY issued a daily sell signal based on the volume profile.  Ideal scenario would be a retest of highs on lower buying volume then back down again to the middle of the previous range, around 198-200 SPY
 The weekly shows alternating red and white candles showing increasing weakness in the trend.  If we correct, I have no idea how far but I would guess 1/3-1/2 retrace before bouncing back up.
 SPY issued buy signal on the hourly.  Caution is warranted though as the intermediate trend line was broken with strong selling volume.
 QQQ may be forming a head shoulders formation.  Any bounce should be monitored for strength.

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Jun 19 - Set up of the year in financials

I am heavily long calls in $C, $BAC, $JPM for late Jun, July, Aug.  Mad conviction here.