Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Jun 14 - Potential FOMC bounce/ short term oversold but down trend still incomplete

Seeing a lot of people positioning themselves for a FOMC/ OPEX bounce and given how oversold we are on the hourly and 2 hr frames, it is not unlikely and probable.  I am not anticipating a sustained bounce as 7 out of 7 times VIX has spiked as high as it has, we have seen the following on the daily (highlighted in the yellow boxes)

-stochs < 20
-CCI < -100
-very close to or touching the lower Bollinger

before a reversal

So I am guessing we have completed the 1st leg down and the 2nd leg will bring us to the low 200's in SPY, maybe sometime next week.  If it happens I will be looking for long setups.

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Jun 12 - Sold $GOOG, $AMZN, $MARK, $IGT calls expiring this week, added July $GPS, $AAPL puts and $GLD calls

Lightening up today and yesterday a lot and have some of the holdings as puts. $FDX getting closer to retesting highs. $SPY close to 2...