Seeing a lot of people positioning themselves for a FOMC/ OPEX bounce and given how oversold we are on the hourly and 2 hr frames, it is not unlikely and probable. I am not anticipating a sustained bounce as 7 out of 7 times VIX has spiked as high as it has, we have seen the following on the daily (highlighted in the yellow boxes)
-stochs < 20
-CCI < -100
-very close to or touching the lower Bollinger
before a reversal
So I am guessing we have completed the 1st leg down and the 2nd leg will bring us to the low 200's in SPY, maybe sometime next week. If it happens I will be looking for long setups.
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
Jun 14 - Potential FOMC bounce/ short term oversold but down trend still incomplete
Very bearish now and looking for a retest of lows in 2-3 weeks. I have puts in SPY, AAPL, GOOS, and GLD. Calls in RIG every major dro...
I am liking the set up for XLE a lot now and XBI I am hoping for some settling so I can board the train. Maybe within 1-2 weeks? Missed ...
Didn't make any changes Fri except close the GLD short as the miners + silver started showing strength and an oversold signal on the 2 h...