Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Jun 14 - Potential FOMC bounce/ short term oversold but down trend still incomplete

Seeing a lot of people positioning themselves for a FOMC/ OPEX bounce and given how oversold we are on the hourly and 2 hr frames, it is not unlikely and probable.  I am not anticipating a sustained bounce as 7 out of 7 times VIX has spiked as high as it has, we have seen the following on the daily (highlighted in the yellow boxes)

-stochs < 20
-CCI < -100
-very close to or touching the lower Bollinger

before a reversal

So I am guessing we have completed the 1st leg down and the 2nd leg will bring us to the low 200's in SPY, maybe sometime next week.  If it happens I will be looking for long setups.

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Feb 17 - Large short position now

Very bearish now and looking for a retest of lows in 2-3 weeks.  I have puts in SPY, AAPL, GOOS, and GLD.  Calls in RIG  every major dro...