Friday, July 29, 2016

July 29 - SPY breakout could be on the way

SPY could finally be breaking up and out.  Could also fail but I am betting on breakout.

On an exciting note, I am making a very major change to my trading.  I realized through a recent audit of my trades that I am sometimes overtrading and limiting my profitability by trying to take on too many perceived opportunities.  And quite frankly, it is too much work to try and potentially engage so much movement.

I decided to do some things and will add more rules in the future.

1.  Edit the amount of trades I execute and install stronger filters to potential entries.  This will probably drastically reduce the amount of trades I do and it is likely there will be periods where I will be in mostly if not entirely cash.

2.  Create an account towards a system-based trading style which will make volatility/ seasonality plays.  The other account will be entirely discretionary and take on equities and commodities.  Each account will have 100k.  The reason for the split is I basically realized running rules-based trading systems in the same account that I was occasionally running discretionary trades was mucking things up.  I believe by splitting them, the system trading won't have as much risk of me tampering with the rules and activity and the discretionary trading could become more systematic by being influenced by a strict rules based system.

3.  Limit number of trades per week to 4 round trip trades a week per account to 15 trades maximum per month for each account.

4.  All trades need to have been researched as potential trades at least a day in advance.  Preferably the week before.

5.  Each trade will be posted with stop loss and profit targets and I will start a P/L graph and R graph.

Today for the 'Volatility Account' executed 2 trades

Sold 11 UVXY Aug 19 25/28 call spreads for .87
Bought 100 VXX Aug 26 10.5/10 put spreads for .34

In the 'Discretionary Account'
Bought 100 SPY Aug 19 214 calls for 4.42

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

July 27 - Will FOMC finally break the range up and out for SPY?

Mixed bag today on all fronts.  Tech is up big and oil/ energy is getting crushed.

Still long QQQ (I unwisely meddled with my position yesterday which cost me several bps) and added SPY for a day trade with the stop set if we close below the consolidation zone.

Even if we break out, need to watch whether it is a false breakout or not.  We should break out strongly and consistently for today through end of week if it is for real.

NYA barely hanging in there

Increasing down volume which is a bit of a warning sign

QQQ just marching on up.  AAPL could be breaking up and out of a long term wedge which could carry the sector far
 HYG flashed weakness yesterday but that was only one day
 Bonds selling off despite today's down activity which is bullish
 Adding to the mixed bag, VIX is spiking up but let's see where we close
 Oil getting smashed.  Glad I am out of XOP but will take another look if oil stabilizes

Monday, July 25, 2016

July 25 - Consolidation

The last 15 min saved the day from looking like this consolidation was going to maybe fail so things look set up for a bounce tomorrow.

My XOP calls got vaporized and will just stick w QQQ for now.

Friday, July 22, 2016

July 22 - Buy the dip!

I rebalanced my longs and took off the XOP calls which I sold for a 1/3 loss and put them into QQQ calls.  I still think a big move up in XOP is lurking but I am going to wait for oil to stabilize.
Edit:  Just re-added smaller position of XOP calls on the oil bounce.

The strong USD is throwing a wrench into the XOP setup for now.

Otherwise it is risk on now.  Tech and small caps are leading.

VIX was rejected

SPY recovered yesterday's losses

I think a lot of people are focused on the low volume but if we are consolidating for a move up this is not unhealthy
 RSI overbought but QQQ keeps grinding up.  I don't see negative divergences here.
 NYA my proxy looks like consolidation

This was disappointing.  I had my stop set at the lower trendline and will wait for it to stabilize.

Thursday, July 21, 2016

July 21 - Consolidation/ mild pullback

I am not expecting the bottom to fall out here and the best thing for the bulls would be to see consolidation in SPY/ NYA to establish camp.  I am still long QQQ/ XOP and not planning on making any moves soon.

This has been my proxy for the overall equities market and so far nothing scary...yet.
 Downward volume is not strong which is a plus for the bulls

QQQ pulling back and so far ok but would be problematic if it fell much further below recent consolidation
 SPY dipping into its recent consolidation zone.  Revisiting previous stabilization zones isn't good.
 USO still coiling and hoping this gains traction for the XOP position

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

July 20 - USO wedge

I would love for this turd to breakout but I would say odds are decent at best.  I say that even though I am long XOP calls for Sept.  Just as possible this wedge turns into a channel and keeps dribbling down.

Jul 20 - More upside in risk on assets

Volume is a bit weak but price is speaking.  Small caps and tech are leading the way.  My QQQ longs are doing great but unfortunately my XOP are still a bit underwater.  If oil stabilizes as I expect, XOP should catch a bid as we see more push into riskier assets.

The last few days was just consolidation we need to see a steady close

A much smaller pullback than most were expecting which speaks to the pain trade being up.

 XOP flashed a breakdown but has recovered.  These false breakdowns often result in big moves in the other direction.
 USO also slipped below support but is now green.
 QQQ is a beast.
 IBB also has broken up and out.  There could be a lot of upside ahead
 VIX keeps dropping amazingly.  Printing a reversal candle so important to see what happens EOD but the trend in equities is still up regardless of negative divergence in VIX w equities

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

July 19 - Inflection point

Looks like we are at a point where the market continues up uninterrupted or creates that pullback that many are expecting.  There are lots of points in equities and commodities that point to such a juncture.  I am biased long as I have XOP/ QQQ positions but am willing to accept a lower volume pullback as long as it doesn't accelerate into something bigger.

IBB may be consolidating or readying for a move down.  Coin flip here.  If it does blast up, QQQ will probably go with it.

SPY looks more bullish.  Small range and even smaller relative volume.
 QQQ in a upward wedge which I am not a big fan of as I am long QQQ but still may break to upside.
 USO tightening and we should get a strong reaction up or down following the crude supplies report tomorrow.

Monday, July 18, 2016

July 18 - Long XOP

Added XOP Sept OTM calls to the menu in addition to existing QQQ positions.  this could make a serious move if oil stabilizes.

Friday, July 15, 2016

July 15 - 120 target for QQQ by mid fall

July 15 - Pause before more upside

I took on QQQ longs yesterday and exited my LABD long this morning.  I am becoming doubtful we get a major pullback to say 210 in SPY and even if we do, it will get bought up very quickly.  I think there is a good chance we see 116 in QQQ and 225 SPY within the next couple months.

When we pullback, I am leaning towards seeing something like in the yellow boxes than a swing trade short.
 VIX amazingly is moving down this morning despite equities selling off.  It is below support.  Telling sign that some want higher prices.

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

July 13 - LABD long

Looking for 40-43 here

July 13 - Early weakness in equities

Closed out SLV/ GLD short and netted even for the trade which was pretty disappointing.  Still looking for a pullback but seems to be no giving up just yet.

The SPY short is working so far.  210-211 in SPY would be a great long entry.

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

July 12- Took small SPY short but still extremely bullish long term

Triggered from RSI signal.  The strength of this up move has been big so didn't bet aggressively here.  Next week is also seasonally very weak so increases the chance of a pullback.  VIX also printed a positive day so we might see some chop or pullback.  Or maybe the technicals short term don't matter and we keep blasting off!

I reluctantly closed 1/2 of the SLV/ GLD shorts at close.  Am a bit wary what might happen if equities reverse.

July 11 - GLD sucks

stopped out of GLD yesterday for -25%.  Holding off on reentry and maybe will enter if we drop another level. SPY on the other hand is crus...