Friday, July 22, 2016

July 22 - Buy the dip!

I rebalanced my longs and took off the XOP calls which I sold for a 1/3 loss and put them into QQQ calls.  I still think a big move up in XOP is lurking but I am going to wait for oil to stabilize.
Edit:  Just re-added smaller position of XOP calls on the oil bounce.

The strong USD is throwing a wrench into the XOP setup for now.

Otherwise it is risk on now.  Tech and small caps are leading.

VIX was rejected

SPY recovered yesterday's losses

I think a lot of people are focused on the low volume but if we are consolidating for a move up this is not unhealthy
 RSI overbought but QQQ keeps grinding up.  I don't see negative divergences here.
 NYA my proxy looks like consolidation

This was disappointing.  I had my stop set at the lower trendline and will wait for it to stabilize.

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Jan 20 - Equities caution signal, short SPY, NFLX

Call buying has come back and very good chance of a pullback here