Sunday, September 25, 2016

Sept 25 - Seasonality poor this week and through Mid October but huge bullish move probably setting up for end of year, long LN/ WFC and eyeing GLD short


Ok so right now kind of a mixed bag here but the long term picture is bullish.  This week could be choppy and ugly and not leaning strongly one way or the other this week despite the cart below.  

This is really really remarkable.  This is a pretty similar situation to 1995 where sentiment bottomed also.  If one to follow this script, we have at least 1-2 years of upside movement before the market tanks.  There is no sign of euphoria right now which marks equity tops.
 If we get another backtest of the breakout zone, it is time to back up the truck in a big way.

GDX consolidating for a potential move lower

But GLD is still within its channel which makes me think the risk is to the downside rather than the other way around.  I will probably buy GLD 126 Nov puts on Monday if GLD is at similar levels.  120 I feel is a reasonable target with a 200% profit potential as 126's are trading around 2.00
 TWLO looks ok but decided to play it safe Friday after the intraday reversal.  50/50 chance it needs a breather and a chance that this breather might cause a pattern failure which is why I would like to see it tighten up again before going long.  I never traded IPO's until this year and give credit to Jeff Kohler at http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/   for spotlighting this one.  Lots of actionable stuff and well worth a subscription.
 This would be the ideal scenario.  1-2 days of low volume chop and rebuy around 61-62
 LN finally made its move and looking for new ATH's.  Currently up 50% on my calls.
 I am eyeing the whole IPO market here.  I missed this ACIA move but you don't step into these things in the first few days.  You wait for some consolidation and many of these things have been ripping.  Easiest money all year.

Obviously nothing here but this one is liquid and within a week, we should see something hopefully emerge as actionable.

TTD also a new IPO, watching this cook.


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Aug 25 - Re-entered (again) GLD short, long LVS, AMZN, NFLX, SHAK

I have been stopped out twice in last few weeks trying to short GLD.  I have a pretty sizeable position of Nov/ Dec GLD/ GDX puts. Also ha...