Sunday, October 30, 2016

Oct 30 - Equities on standby

I have to admit I am not trying to get caught up in all this Clinton email noise but for sure the market looks soggy.  High beta is getting whacked and I am leaning towards some kind of small/ mid sized flushout to start the Q4 rally.  Perhaps all it will take is a Clinton win and we are off the races.

I lightened up my longs a lot this week and only have the Dec VXX puts, HMSY, and BIDU.  In general was a very disappointing week as I had profits on most of my positions but didn't act quickly enough.  AT close I put on XLF puts for a short term play.  I am looking to add biotech at some point but not now.  Also would like to add WFC again but want a pullback.

In all, my positioning is more of wait and see mode.

Negative divergence on daily

And if we sell off I will look to cover when stochs/ RSI bottom out.

Friday, October 28, 2016

Oct 27 - Lightening up on equities

I voluntarily sold WFC today which was my biggest position and involuntarily sold TDC.  I added a small WFC short and SPY short at close.  I am still bullish on WFC but think it needs a breather/ consolidation.

TSLA/ BIDU earnings turned out to more or less non events.

I don't like how soggy the indexes have looked and looks like that may drag into the election.  I'm not totally sure but market isn't moving like I thought it would.  The China stocks/ IPO's getting wobbly was a warning sign which was one reason I dumped my YRD a couple days ago.

Right now sitting on BIDU, TSLA, BIIB, HMSY, and deep ITM Dec VXX puts.

Looking for a pullback to one of the two levels and perhaps after the election a big ramp up to the 48-50 range.

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Oct 25 - More equities chop, added HMSY, TDC, BIDU longs

The positions now includes in order of size


My proxy for the overall market

Monday, October 24, 2016

Oct 24 - I am massively bullish into end of year

Indexes coiling up for upside.  It's possible we see a flush out to level 1 or level 2 as indicated in the SPY chart but that would be a gift for longs to add.

I am adding CMG, BIIB, and TSLA to the portfolio this week.  Already have a solid portion of WFC and YRD.  Also eyeing FB but I missed the recent move.

Maybe a potential flush out but I am in any event favoring a 3-5%+ move by end of year up.

 Very nice set up w BIIB
 CMG basing and we might finally leave this range by EOD
 TSLA which is not something I am interested in looks like a very good set up
 WFC basing well
 Sitting in a triangle and I expect this to break to the upside at some point.

Thursday, October 20, 2016

Oct 20 - YRD might be coiling for a big 10%+ move up

Volume and range really dying off here which is good

Oct 20 - Equities chop, added CMG for pre-earnings runup

Still in YRD which is consolidating nicely and the indexes continue to churn.  Possible we see a flush out in the next week or two but things look poised for a strong end of the year run.

Sold the other 1/2 GLD this morning and who knows I might miss the runup to 124 that I was targeting but I think I have more interesting plays that have better longer term value.

Also still long BIIB, WFC.

Added CMG as a pre-earnings play and if we get a good run up will pull some off before earning on Tuesday.

A really fantastic range to trade in
 VIX if it breaks this trendline could trigger strong buying in equities

YRD has thoroughly spooked me the last 2 days with the wild near 10% swings but looks like healthy consolidation.  I have high hopes for this one.

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Oct 19 - Added more WFC

I subbed out 50% of my GLD calls for Nov WFC calls.  I am looking to add Dec calls tomorrow perhaps.  Depends on how things close.  Target is 48-49 by Dec.

Oct 19 - GLD finally moving, YRD bounces

Not a bad day and I finally cut loose CMCM and basically wrote off most of the option premium.  Only sitting on YRD which has made a very nice recovery.  I am thinking that China stocks might slow down until November once indexes might break out of this zone.

GLD I am targeting 123-124.

WFC doing well, BIIB soso.   My VXX puts doing great despite a modest up day in SPY.

I made a big gaffe and once again missed the move in oil.

The rounded bottom and miners leading which is bullish

Here again you can see miners leading

 still have a crazy target of 40 in YRD.  If that happens I will cash 400% on my Nov calls

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Oct 18 - Closed out some VXX puts, added to GLD longs

Not totally sold on today's bounce and we might get a reaction tomorrow.  My China longs are struggling here (even YRD which made a bad reversal today) and things need to get moving soon.
Added to GLD longs.  The other core positions of WFC, BIIB look solid and might switch out China for more blue chip longs like WFC/ BIIB

Monday, October 17, 2016

Oct 17 - Added large batch of Nov VXX puts

Things are looking v bullish for intermediate term.  I got a lot of VXX puts.

Oct 17 - Added 1/2 position to GLD, eyeing IWM Nov/ Dec calls

The market sell off is weak and choppy.  Maybe another few days to a week of chop but I feel strongly we get to ATH towards end of this quarter.

Added 1/2 position of GLD bringing me to full position.

Eyeing IWM calls towards close or maybe earlier.

Basing well

Hard to see but a sort of inverted H + S.  The main thing is the move up was impulsive and the move down has been choppy and scratchy.  Which leads me to believe we are coiling for a move up.

Friday, October 14, 2016

Oct 14 - Mixed bag in equities, YRD might be ready to blast off

Not sure what to expect Monday but today's action could be a bear trap.  But I don't have a huge amount of conviction here.  Next week is seasonably bullish so tailwinds for the bulls.

Long China via YRD + CMCM + SOHU Nov calls
Long VXX Nov puts
Long WFC, BIIB stock
Added back 1/2 position of GLD long (we should get a bounce sometime, just don't know when)

Oct 14 - Trimmed off GLD, NUGT

Didn't like the action last 2 days and was expecting the GLD bounce to materialize sooner.  Will re-enter GLD if at end of day we print a low volume small candle.

Otherwise I picked up VXX puts yesterday and already thinking about selling them as SPY looks wobbly.

Holding large YRD (moving great), midsized CMCM (which is acting like a turd now), and small SOHU.

I am hoping for more market weakness and chop to get a big long position into the end of Q4.  Eyeing WFC and hoping for an earnings slide to buy into weakness.

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Oct 12 - Long GLD/ NUGT

I really like this for a 2-3% bounce in GLD and a decent move in miners.  Still long YRD, CMCM, and small SOHU

Monday, October 10, 2016

Oct 10 - Late stage IPO's taken to woodshed

TWLO and ACIA got hammered today and I ended up eating 50% of value in TWLO calls that I added to on Friday.

Holding in order of size:

Short: GLD

I might be early going short GLD again

YRD has the most promising setup out of the China stocks

 SOHU had a bad dip like CMCM and now back into the middle

Thursday, October 6, 2016

Oct 6 - More equities chop, GLD might bounce

Exited SPY short near open and GLD short right after

Picked up SOHU calls, added a bit of YRD calls, small TWTR calls, and small amount of GLD 119/119.5 call spreads @ .27 expiring tomorrow

Current holdings in order of size

short: none

Update on different accounts

Volatility acct is +20%, I haven't touched it in weeks though and will start trading it once we get past October.
Discretionary acct is +2% (20% TWLO, 20% CMCM, 20% YRD, WFC calls)
The 15k acct (very high risk account - will call this the 'Cecil Fielder') is up 50% now.  It was down 40% at one point.  This one has a variety of calls in YRD, CMCM, SOHU, TWLO, TWTR, GLD and utilized to 50% capacity

Hopefully this weekend I will graph the activity of the Cecil Fielder account.

Big divergence in GLD and it is definitely in the category of shorting in the hole now.
 Third consecutive close below Bollinger and decreased volume.  Not safe to be short although it could still waterfall.  Looking to reshort on a bounce
 SOHU set up well

Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Oct 5 - More equities churn, added small TWLO

Sold the WFC Nov 47 calls for a nice gain and would hold them if we weren't seeing the upper end of the range in equities.  I think WFC is carving out a floor finally but don't want to get caught in an overall down draft.

Current holdings (in order of size)
short GLD, SPY (re-entered after getting stopped out yesterday)

Probably tomorrow will be a down day with a gap down

Possible failed breakout in IWM
 NYA got to the midpoint and may reverse
 QQQ also hit resistance but didn't break through

July 11 - GLD sucks

stopped out of GLD yesterday for -25%.  Holding off on reentry and maybe will enter if we drop another level. SPY on the other hand is crus...