Wednesday, December 28, 2016

Dec 28 - Currently long CMG, CTRP, SOHU, BABA, BIDU, FXE

Added CTRP and SOHU today.  Obviously bullish and looking for a short term pop maybe more out of consolidation in next 1-2 mo.  For the general indexes, I am guessing some upward movement but not expecting much and perhaps chop after Trump's inauguration until April.

Stopped out of USO short today.  That wasn't a good bet.

Still short VXX via Jan/ Mar puts.  I am up 75% and 50% respectively.  Fading the Trump fear turned into a monster trade.  If I can find 1-2 more of these next year...

Thursday, December 22, 2016

Dec 22 - Long FXE, BIDU, BABA and short USO

Picked up Feb calls in all 3.  Eyeing GLD calls but having been burned on the last trade treading carefull and waiting for dampening volatility.  Perhaps the first week of Jan will be the time to go long.

Sunday, December 18, 2016

Dec 17 - Market consolidating for now, GLD longs stopped out

FOMC torpedoed by GLD longs in a big way and I was stopped out mid session.  May look to go long in a week or two once volatility dries up a bit.  Added some BIDU and YELP longs but otherwise not exposed too much.

Monday, December 12, 2016

Dec 12 - Added a bit to GLD longs, sold IWM, COP, XOP longs

I cashed in energy Jan ITM calls for 70% return on today's huge open.  I have crushed my pre-election longs and my only gaffe which unfortunately which was major was selling WFC around 51 when now it is in the high 50's.  That would've been 50k in profit.  I think that was the one time I should've paid more attention to the fundamental situation as repealing Frank Dodd was huge and not just an overreaction.

Still holding Jan/ Mar VXX puts which are now very deep in the money and a modest batch of CMG calls from Friday.  Otherwise I am pretty thin on longs and waiting for the next rotation.

Still not clear what will happen with GLD but I am favoring a bounce to high 110's this month or Jan.  Selling pressure seems to have slowly weakened.

Friday, December 9, 2016

Dec 9 - Added to GLD longs

Added Jan 5 GLD 115 calls at .5.  A bit too early probably but will need two things to happen

1.  volatility and volume to NOT increase from today
2.  a positive reaction or lack thereof at Fed announcement

Thursday, December 8, 2016

Dec 8 - Booking partial gains

Sold 1/2 Jan ITM XOP, COP, IWM calls from pre-election for 60+%.  Sold 1/3 VXX Jan/ Mar DITM puts which are up almost as much and will slowly scale out of them in upcoming week.s  I had sold off the OTM Jan puts last week.

The Mar VXX puts which I had touted as the trade of the year is crushing it.   Post is here.

I bought  Mar VXX 55 puts @ 21.75 and now they are at 29.5

Bought some GLD 114 Dec 30 calls @ .44 as volatility is diminishing and I could easily see a bounce to 117-119

July 11 - GLD sucks

stopped out of GLD yesterday for -25%.  Holding off on reentry and maybe will enter if we drop another level. SPY on the other hand is crus...