Friday, January 29, 2016

Jan 29 - Future bullish targets

This move looks solid and now mapping out where this move might end.  It looks like a test of 195 in SPY is high probability after that very uncertain.

Lot of resistance above and a measured move from the bottom would take us to 196.  Tough resistance at 195 also.  If we clear both of these high 190's is possible but we would probably see consolidation before that move occurs.
 The orange area I will be watching for a reaction.  Daily will be overbought by end of next week if this move is very impulsive.
 VIX will be oversold by mid wk

Jan 30 - Breakout potential equities

We might be finally lifting out of this very difficult and choppy consolidation zone that has made many a bit gun shy including myself.  I have a small long grabbed right after open but more interested in looking for a short opportunity down the line.

Volume looks legit this morning.

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Jan 28 - More chop

Amazingly we are still in the consolidation zone in SPY and despite yesterday's sell off and today's gap fill there is still chance for a leg up.  The 2 hr sell signal is still awaiting confirmation so things look pretty muddles at this point and on a short term basis, wouldn't press any bet aggressively, long or short.

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Jan 27 - Short signal SPY/ QQQ

Looking for a retest of lows.  Today was a very good setup for the bulls and the breakout failed.  If and when we hit the lows, it might trigger a strong reaction up.

Sell signal on 2 hr frame which I usually deem something not to bet against.

Lots of space below in QQQ

Looking more like dead cat bounce and/or consolidation for another leg down.  Still a chance for a sustained upturn but it needs to happen by tomorrow.  If we move down, will be seeing if there is a reaction at previous lows.  If not, we could be in a big slide.  What looks weak is that we haven't had a single day of sustained intraday buying start to finish.  At some point that almost always occurs near a bottom.

Jan 27 - Bulls frontrunning Fed

Question is whether we take off.  Right now backtesting support.

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Jan 26 - More bullish consolidation

For now, looks like yesterday's dip was a low volume shakeout.  We will need to see confirmation above this zone to resume the recent uptrend.

5 min scalping chart with some interesting intraday setups for consolidation zones.  That aside one can see the sideways zone which looks more like a base
Same with the 10 min frame

If we can get above this level 194-195 is around the corner where I would expect resistance to hold on the first attempt

 Hourly has potential to hit the first level of resistance soon
 194-195 will unload half of positions if and when we get there
 This was a critical chart today.  Confirmation of strong buying volume which should establish a short term floor in equities

Junk bonds still in uptrend which bodes well for equities short term.  Long term the negative divergence is a red flag

Jan 26 - Back over resistance

Market staged a huge reversal in futures overnight and the open (so far) has been strong.  If SPY can close 1%+ it will undo most of the damage for yesterday.  As everyone knows oil is a big driver and quite honestly I will be happy to see more of a disconnect between oil and equities as we are seeing a huge amount of chop.

The channels are still intact and my retest of lows scenario less likely now.

I'm long but modestly so via SPY 185 Feb 5 calls.  Will be looking to position more aggressively short if and when we rise up further.

Jan 25 - Consolidation fail

We had a great long setup that failed miserably.  Although volume was low the price action looked impulsive and we might be heading towards a retest of lows.  I am playing it cautious until I see more evidence but the close at lows was pretty bearish.

I am guessing a retest or two of lows then bounce or perhaps a break to new lows.  at this point I will be surprised if the market steps up and prevents a retest as we aren't far away from 181 in SPY

Monday, January 25, 2016

Jan 25 - Long consolidation

So far the low volume looks like consolidation so as of now lining up for a move up tomorrow but there are still multiple possibilities

1.  another day of chop 10%
2.  gap up and resumption of trend 50%
3.  another move down with low volume selling and a gap up on Weds 25%
4.  retest of lows 10%
5.  breaking lows 5%

Because all of these scenarios barring option 5 involve eventual upward movement I have my stop pretty loosely set at slightly below Thurs' close to allow the gap to be filled.  I remain long SPY/ XIV

If we bounce off the bottom trendline again, this would be a good long setup.

From 10 min frame looks like consolidation and hopefully stays that way

A decent amount of upside still left

The buy signal just triggered on daily so expecting some push up before it can weaken.

Friday, January 22, 2016

Jan 22 - Short squeeze

Looks like I was wrong on pulling longs yesterday and woke to see a very large gap up.  Managed to get in on the small dip in morning long and will hold if we close strongly, i.e. above 190 in SPY.

The NYSE up down volume ratio looks good and the ratio will increase if we close strong

Thursday, January 21, 2016

Jan 21 - Trimmed longs, market looks a bit unclear

SPY just got rejected by the 30 min trendline.  I could be overreacting here but going to protect gains until I see more robust buying power.

USO looks interesting and if it stays strong, it will help the underlying market.

Jan 21 - Still long, need a SPY close above 190

Kind of a soggy open and looking for min 190+ in SPY to hold overnight.  Otherwise there is risk of another leg down.  That said, so far action is productive even if unimpressive.  I don't like how risk assets like small caps are underperforming today.  VIX is also stubbornly high.

The upper trendline for me has to break and stay above it by close on the 30 min

Resistance above.
 Looking at the recent candles you can see why there's risk of another leg down if today's close is not strong
 VIX also needs to follow through with selling.

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Jan 20 - Maybe a short term floor?

We have had a few false signals but this has been the best long signal so far in a while.  That said, it isn't a perfect one but significantly more robust than the one 2 days ago.  There is the possibility this potential bounce gets sold off into again.  I would have preferred to see VIX spike harder and to see more intraday range on equities but this is a pretty good start.

Sitting very long via SPY/ IWM and seeking at a few day bounce.

CPC spiked again and perhaps this time it will lead to a meaningful bounce

Treasury yields once again spiked down like two days ago.  When it overshoots the trendline like this, could be sign of excessive fear and exhaustion.

 $NYMO is grinding out a bottom but it isn't a good indicator to make short term moves right now
 SPY sitting on the ledge of support after slipping off the cliff earlier in the day
 SPY came close to the first weekly target which was enough for me to close shorts
 VIX on the hourly in an upward channel/ wedge with a sell signal.  As the market has bled down, it has ignored these signals because of the trending momentum.  For a low to be established, the channel needs to break.
 $VXO/ $VIX/ $VXN/ $VXV all displaying various potential reversal candles, some more than others.

Overshoot here above trendline perhaps resolved soon

This is the most promising VIX-type chart as we are right up against the trendline and printed a black reversal candle.

Jan 20 - Flipped long SPY

Need to make sure the close doesn't fall apart but looks constructive (again).  VIX printing reversal candle.

Jan 20 - Took profits on 1/2 longs, remaining 1/2 has stop at 186 SPY

On shorter timeframes dues for bounce so took profits.  The rest  will be allowed to bounce a bit but not too much.

update: took off another 1/4.  Only 1/4 remaining

Jan 20 - SPX support broken

Selling is strong and steady.  The one wrinkle is that $VXO/ $VIX while up aren't presenting big moves.  So either there's a lot more downside ahead or the market is poised to bounce.  My SPY puts have almost doubled and seeking to hold until end of week depending on which levels are hit and nature of the sell off.  First level seeking to take profits is 177-178 SPY if we get there.

We've fallen into the orange box and below support which has held the previous 2 days.

The down vs up volume ratio in the NYSE is in the 30's which is same as the Aug low from 2015 (lower yellow bar) but not as extreme as the mini crash from 2011 (upper yellow bar)

SPY is overshooting to the downside from its channel
 The 60 min frame likewise
 Seeking support around 177-178
 Based on weekly, there is more room to fall
 VIX/ VXO strangely enough aren't spiking like one would think.  This is something to monitor carefully.

May 15 - Closed out IWM puts for +120% and picked up DAL and HD Jun calls

I'm going to let the market do its thing this week and probably stay away from new positions until Friday unless something very good pop...