Friday, April 29, 2016

Apr 29 - Trend change highly possible in equities, GLD/ SLV continue to breakout

SPY broke down out of its consolidation pattern and the sequence of up-consolidate-up-consolidate-up-etc has been broken.  I am not shorting and hoping for a bounce to sell into.  Otherwise sitting a big chunk of GLD Aug 20 113 calls and looking for a roughly 135-140 target.

Ugly breakdown but not shorting into this.  We could continue to slide down into low 200's but going to wait and see what beginning of month does.

Definitive breakout.  Needs another couple days of upward movement though to set pace to 135-140
 When the weekly sell signal failed, that brought up the possibility of another leg up via another bullish yellow box.

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Apr 28 - Out of equities, long GLD

I got stopped out of all longs and now only holding outsized position of GLD.  Today's reversal was unexpected.  Been expecting some pullback for weeks now but maybe this is the real deal.  Not going short now and prefer my position in metals as safe haven trade.  If this is the beginning of a trend change, will be looking to short the bounce.

At the lower end of range.  If this is violated, the trend up from Feb is in question

Still in the zone, but it was a nasty sell off on stronger volume.

SPY weekly looks bearish with back to back reversal tails

Apr 28 - Next leg up in equities?

Holding SPY long/ TVIX short.  SPY is consolidating and we might see a gap up in the next few days, if not tomorrow.

Moving out of the tightening bollingers/ consolidation

Looks like consolidation

VIX getting whacked again despite a big gap up

Apr 28 - GLD potential breakout

I am heavily long GLD Aug ITM calls as of this morning when it was up .75%.  Should have entered yesterday.  Short still TVIX and long SPY/ FEYE but smaller positions.

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Apr 26 - Closed out longs EOD but looking to reload tomorrow on FOMC weakness

The one long I left on, a small batch of AAPL calls is being crushed now.  Currently -6%.  Nothing worse than adjusting the holdings and keeping dogs.  Also a reminder that technicals easily overridden by earnings.

Apr 26 - Gap and crap

Not the follow through I would have liked being long.  Still holding but not improbably that we get another flush out.  Maybe in form of a gap down tomorrow.

Could be seen as bullish consolidation or a bearish failure to thrust up out of  the wedge

More consolidation is possible

Same here

Low volume and printing a reversal candle.  Not ideal

IWM is showing good strength though which could indicate risk is still on

Monday, April 25, 2016

Apt 25 - Potentially bullish close

Let's see what happens tomorrow but setting up for a gap up.  We will see.  Still long equities via SPY/ IWM/ AAPL and short TVIX.

Broke up and out.  Need follow through though

VIX printed reversal candle.

Apr 25 - Still long SPY/ IWM/ AAPL

Low volume sell off and if things stay contained within the consolidation zone, we could be setting up for another leg up.

Descending wedge/ channel

Extremely low volume today.  We might not even hit 75MM shares traded
 NYA showing positive divergence and action so far looks corrective, not impulsive, to borrow EW parlance.

Friday, April 22, 2016

Fri Apr 22 - Long AAPL

Very interesting setup on the hourly + daily.  Bought a handful of ITM calls ahead of Tues earnings.

Very promising positive divergence on hourly
At bottom of Bollinger with hollow reversal candle, not bad at all.

Apr 22 - Closed SPY short - flipped to long

Oversold on hourly and took a smaller SPY long.  Still risk of market giving way below so going to carefully monitor things

Thursday, April 21, 2016

Apr 20 - the longer term bullish case

Although short SPY for short term (1-3 days), it is very possible that we are going to see equities go much higher than they are now.  DIA and SPY have cleared to ATH and there is possibility after a potential small pullback we are back off to the races.

Courtesy of Sentimentrader, one of my favorite resources out there.  This table captures what has happened historically when we see a sharp, major shift in price from lows to highs.  It has a 100% bullish outcome over 1 mo period.  I have looked at this pretty carefully and feel hard pressed to push intermediate term shorts now.  The last 2 weeks have brought out the possibility that we are seeing a long term trend change and that the past year was just consolidation.

 VIX near its zone of 12 where we have seen equities pullback.

 Something different is happening though.  The last downturn the NYAD didn't break up and out like it did now.  This posits that we just completed consolidation
Previous long term negative divergences 15 years ago set up a bear market.
 Here also.
 But not now.  The set up failed and RSI crossed the declining trendline.  I had expectation that it would touch the trendline then go back down but it has definitively broken above it.
 We might be heading into a ATH orange box as happened several years ago.

Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Apr 20 - Still short SPY

Looking for a few handles pullback in SPY.  Today's reversal was only semi-promising.  Let's see if we get follow through next few days.

NYA printed another RSI sell signal.  Last one failed though.

Another RSI sell signal on SPY 2 hr.  The last one failed like NYA.  Let's see if it falls to lower end of yellow box.

Neg divergence on RSI/ CCI on 30 min but nothing super dramatic.

Nice reversal candle setup on low volume.

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Apr 19 - SPY new high

SPY broke above resistance and in new territory.  I had closed the SPY short in the morning yesterday from Apr 15 and took a TVIX short which was also closed this morning.

Currently have a modest size SPY short and looking for a 2 handle pullback with stop at 211 and target 208.

For now market is still strong but we may see some chop/ pullback as seasonality becomes more unfavorable to equities in May

Friday, April 15, 2016

Apr 14 - Short SPY...again

Shorting SPY today at 208.25
stop is 209 and target 206, if we get more great but this is mainly a 1:2 risk to reward play

Things that are more favorable than the previous short attempt
-very low volume SPY
-VIX hourly printing a buy signal
-SPY daily is scratching upper BB (so is DIA as well)
-$CPC ratio issued a sell signal for equities yesterday
-sell signal on 2 hr frame SPY (which is more reliable than the hourly)

NYSE issuing RSI sell signal which usually means consolidation/ mild pullback
 1 hr selling signal but has been somewhat unreliable
 2 hr sell signal on CCI which has worked well recently
 First time seeing negative divergence on daily

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Apr 12 - Potential leg up forming in equities

Equities is doing what is enough to set up another move up as it cracked the trendline.  Not a given but the market is hanging around and has been for a couple of weeks.  The last few days excluding today have looked like distribution but this range keeps holding.

Most indexes look like the consolidation could continue or break up.

Very possible to get to 208 in SPY where I would be surprised not to see some more consolidation/ resistance.  At that point, I will reassess what the market says.

QQQ also consolidating

Apr 12- Stopped out of short, will look to reload at 208ish

Stopped out when we cracked upper trendline on 30 and 60 min chart.  Still looking for pullback however.

Monday, April 11, 2016

Apr 11 - short SPY target 198-200

I went short SPY yesterday and am holding today.  I am next expecting a big pullback as there is a good chance we see some consolidation range like last time and a bounce back up to 205ish in SPY if this pullback occurs.  Such a consolidation range would frustrate both bulls and bears.  After that, maybe the market corrects in May/ June but I wouldn't totally discount that ATH's happen.

For now, just playing only the short/ intermediate term future.

so far, SPY could just be consolidating like the other indexes so will be watching this closely.  I would like a breach of lower trendline to feel more confident that uptrend is definitively weakening.  In other words, bulls still in control and we could see another leg up.
 The volume profile where selling days are even with up days could be indicating this up move could be stalling out.
 VIX could have based and it made a very strong move in the last hour
 Amazing.  I could have gone long for a swing trade as this setup was enough to get my out of a NUGT short but couldn't quite wrap my head around another big move up.  Long term bullish case is getting pretty strong now.

Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Apr 6 - Stopped out of NUGT short, equities bouncing

Stopped out of NUGT short for -5% on the position as GDX started to creep above the trendline and GLD is looking like it doesn't want to go away yet and may be breaking up and out of its wedge.  I am a bit surprised as the bullish inflows into GLD were so extreme recently so perhaps what would keep the storyline consistent is another spike up before things move back down again.

Still waiting for lower trendline to break but it isn't happening now
 GLD consolidating
 Equity bears continue to get teased but we might be forming a VIX bottom here

May 15 - Closed out IWM puts for +120% and picked up DAL and HD Jun calls

I'm going to let the market do its thing this week and probably stay away from new positions until Friday unless something very good pop...