Thursday, June 30, 2016

Jun 30 - Gap almost filled

http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/146667426983/857-chance-of-sp-500-gains-on-july-1

We are really overbought but hard to bet against this.  In the afternoon tomorrow, we could easily see a ramp up.  Needless to say, I folded my put spreads this morning.  I am even more surprised but the level of strength than I was yesterday.  So far it has been a complete mirror move from the Brexit down move.


Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Jun 29 - Another big up day

I had some small long positions from midday yesterday that I sold today and have a small position of put spreads expiring tomorrow @.66 for the 207/208 SPY.  I have to admit I didn't think the rebound would be so strong given the technical damage.

July 1 has very strong positive seasonality so if we get a pullback tomorrow, odds are good that Friday will be an up day.  The volume in the afternoon will probably be terrible as people leave for vacation and the bots will probably run it up into the close.

After the long weekend, I might be entering shorts if SPY hits 209ish.

Up/down volume ratio was extreme.  Usually gets a pause the next day or two then back up.

V-shaped bottom.  Very easily could be more upside but at some point I favor a retest around the recent lows.

Monday, June 27, 2016

Jun 27 - Pulled off shorts at close but will re-short bounces

VIX and volume dropped today and to me flashed a caution signal for those short.  I once again exited positions and am flat waiting for a potential bounce which could be sharp.  After that, I am favoring more downside.


Jun 27 - More forced selling

I hopped back in short in pre market and looks like SPY has a date with previous lows in the 180's.




Sunday, June 26, 2016

Jun 26 - Uncertain near future

I closed out my puts for a solid gain as I bought them at the peak of the day Friday.  I came extremely close to holding 1/2 but decided against it as I felt very uncomfortable shorting into the first big move down.  Friday was the strangest move I have ever seen, Flash Crash and GFC included.  It is obvious that too many were positioned on the long side but the timing and magnitude were surprising.

Question is whether
1.  waterfall event and we go straight down
2.  dead cat bounce Mon/ Tues then back down
3.  a few bounces on this current level and then to retest lows
4.  this friday crash was a one off event and we retest ATH

Lots of possibilities but lots of technical damage done.

I am leaning towards a bounce of some kind, for how long I don't know, and eventually another move down.

Right now there are the opposing forces of potential central bank activity to trigger a bounce but if we get more selling, more forced liquidation which could result in waterfall event.  So there are conflicting forces here and for that reason I reluctantly closed shorts at close Friday.  I would like to see some kind of bounce to go short again and if we gap down and go, I won't be able to chase it.

Hourly showing strong divergence and a possible bounce.


The daily near support but volume was monstrous so this is probably not a one and done deal.


Friday, June 24, 2016

Jun 24 - Short SPY

Picked up SPY 200 July 15 puts @ 1.90.  I don't know what will happen, whether we will stabilize or go down but if we drop, the return could be 5x-7x.

VXO/ VIX is ramping up


Jun 24 - Bull trap from hell

I got some back by going long XIV pre market on the partial gap fill but didn't come close to recovering the solid losses on the Brexit move.  I am currently flat.  The boat was way too loaded to the long side (myself too bullish before a major risk event) and it toppled over in a big way.  I could easily see the gap being filled but if it does we have a good chance of retesting today's lows and more because of 'hangovers' associated with such a violent move.  Equities, currencies, commodities are all going nuts today.

Just a thought.  for now, appears to be more downside than upside potential.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Jun 23 - Massively long

Boat is almost full and will add more longs tomorrow assuming we get follow through.  Expectations of ATH in DIA/ SPY soon.





Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Jun 22 - QQQ/ XBI long

Picked up OTM July 15 calls for XBI.  I also added small amount of QQQ calls at close.  Could be a bit premature bc of Brexit but the 2 hour + daily are saying bounce.



Jun 22 - Neutral stance short term, bullish long term

I unloaded the SPY put spreads at break even and am standing aside.  It is really muddy in terms of the technicals and as of now the only set up is buying into QQQ weakness around 106.





Friday, June 17, 2016

Jun 17 - Not much of a bounce, looking for a little bit more downside next week

Quickly closed QQQ long and switched to SPY short on open but smaller than the previous short position I carried this week as VIX is still elevated and this isn't the safer place to short.  But doesn't look like Thurs was the bottom so far.

Still respecting the trendline and am guessing more churn is needed to carve out a bottom.

Some air below, perhaps 202-203 is in the cards


Thursday, June 16, 2016

Jun 16 - Post OPEX weak bearishness coming?

I went long QQQ at close but am still looking to play next week to the short side for its bearish seasonality.  I still feel at some point things will stabilize and attempts ATH.  When I have no idea.

Things still look incomplete in SPY although VIX looks like it printed a top.  Not entirely clear.

Seasonality is poor next week.  In the last 10 years only 1 positive week.



Jun 16 - Closed shorts

I got stopped out mid morning on the gap fill on my shorts and now eyeing longs.  We didn't hit the low 200's in SPY so I don't have total confidence in a short term bottom but seeing some promising things so far today.  My guess would be a bounce then a bit more downside before bottoming but for sure the easy money on the short side is over.  If SPY closes slightly in the red, I will go long for a potential bounce tomorrow.

CPC is very high at 1.41 which means fear is in the market and we are due for a bounce.  Exactly when I am not sure.

Potential consolidation for a breakout

 Looks like consolidation here also
 Positive divergence on hourly

 still in its channel so we could still go down
 This is extremely promising as bonds are overbought and lining up for a breather


Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Jun 15 - FOMC bounce fizzles

Surprisingly the FOMC bounce did not offer much even though the short term time frames were very oversold so the downward trend continues.  I still remain short SPY and still looking for low 200's.

Stochs/ CCI still not in the oversold zone so I think the yellow box is still in play.

Resistance held and rejected today's action emphatically
 Looking for today to have been a pause in the way down.
 We got a 2 hr buy signal but it didn't offer much at all
 This chart is total speculation but would be interesting to see what happens if the rising trendline is broken and we form an inverted head and shoulders
 CPC put call ratio when peaking above the green line has recently been a great signal
 But it has failed in 2014, basically whenever it moved past the standard deviation so to speak of a pullback

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Jun 14 - Potential FOMC bounce/ short term oversold but down trend still incomplete

Seeing a lot of people positioning themselves for a FOMC/ OPEX bounce and given how oversold we are on the hourly and 2 hr frames, it is not unlikely and probable.  I am not anticipating a sustained bounce as 7 out of 7 times VIX has spiked as high as it has, we have seen the following on the daily (highlighted in the yellow boxes)

-stochs < 20
-CCI < -100
-very close to or touching the lower Bollinger

before a reversal

So I am guessing we have completed the 1st leg down and the 2nd leg will bring us to the low 200's in SPY, maybe sometime next week.  If it happens I will be looking for long setups.


Jun 14 - Still short SPY, 203 target

Volume continues to steadily pour in and now looking for support around 203 with the potential for an overshoot to down to 200.

Looking to stay short until those levels are reached and willing to deal with FOMC noise and a potential short squeeze if for some reason there is a positive reaction.  That said things are extremely oversold so that squeeze could pop up out of nowhere.

This is different than the last pullback in April.  Volume is stronger, the angle of decline much steeper and VIX is very high which is why I think this pullback in character is more similar to the ones back to last Nov/Dec where we dropped 9-10 pts twice in SPY.
 Grinding down through oversold conditions.  I tried going long yesterday but that didn't work.  So I won't attempt a long until 203 minimum
 2 hr timeframe also extremely oversold and normally would bounce but it isn't.



Monday, June 13, 2016

Jun 13 - Support broken

The intraday long got stopped out pretty fast and switched back to previous positions after 209 was broken.  203 level looks like it will be tested at some point.