Friday, September 30, 2016

Sept 30 - Added more WFC Dec 40 calls

My position is topped out now.  Sentiment is terrible and people are calling for the CEO's head.  From a financial standpoint, Wells is still in excellent shape and at some point the emotion should die down.

Sept 30 - More chop in equities

Not unexpectedly we got faked out again with an up day after yesterday's bearish action.  Not sure what to expect here but I would guess a bit more upside on Oct 1 and then a more decisive break in either direction.  Closed LN short for small gain and also 1/2 TWLO calls for a small loss although if we trade flat in TWLO on low volume I may look at buying stock EOD.

Right now, long WFC a pretty solid chunk of Nov/ Dec ITM calls, modest GLD long, small TWTR puts, and small TWLO calls.

Looking for a break in one way or the other

TWLO seems soggy and I was leaning towards a gap and go which didn't have this morning.
 Overshoot and this needs to stabilize quickly.  Lots of positive divergence here which is a plus
 Long GLD and looking for test of upper trendline

Thursday, September 29, 2016

Sept 29 - Closed SPY short, re-entered TWLO

DB weighing on the market and my now sizeable position of Nov/ Dec WFC calls about 10% underwater.  Closed SPY shorts when SPY was at -.8% to breakeven on a poor short entry from yesterday.

Indexes barely worth trading.  Just a lot of chop.

I thought TWLO might have been done but looks like it is presenting another opportunity.  This will probably the last time I take a long stab at this as it is pretty elevated.  In TWLO oct 21 65 calls @6.0

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Sept 28 - Sold TWLO, closed GLD short, short LN, long WFC

Decided even though a big leg could arrive it was time to move onto to new things with TWLO.   Easy money is over and it has turned out to be a monster trade.

Shorted LN/ SPY small and TWTR even smaller via puts.

Added to a now pretty big long position in WFC Nov/ Dec calls.

This might be an exhaustion move
 This is setting up very well

GDX is rebounding so going to let go of GLD short and look to reload on the bounce

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Sept 27 - Sold LN, 1/2 long TWLO

Re-entered TWLO calls, Octobers ITM and a handful of 70's expiring this week on the midday reversal (gave up a few %) and looks set to challenge 75.  Sold LN as the whole body is outside of the Bollinger and booked 110% profits on LN 40 calls.

Possibly more upside here and might make some small intraday bets

70-75 looks inevitable and high 70's doesn't seem impossible

Sept 27 - Probably only a short lived bounce in equities

So far, a very good day.  GLD short, long LN/ TWLO/ QQQ all working except a small down day in WFC.  I just sold TWLO as there is a good chance it dribbles down today.  If it fills the gap, I will be a buyer again.

Would be surprising and force to chase if it breaks above the trendline today/ tomorrow but betting right now that we will see some settling.
If we tag the lower end of the range, will make a nice re-entry

 so far looks like mini-consolidation

 LN looking great and starting to think about taking some profits soon

 GLD short is working and question is whether it bounces soon or breaks down below this consolidation zone
 If miners break below, will feel more confident about the GLD short
 Going to unload QQQ long position picked up at close yesterday probably at close.  The chart is a mess.

Monday, September 26, 2016

Sept 26 - long QQQ for 1-2 day hold

Grabbed QQQ ITM calls expiring this week for a short hold.  Stop is slightly below today's lows.
Looks like accumulation in SPY/ XLE which bodes well for tomorrow

CPC ratio spiked again.  the indicator has been somewhat wobbly lately but still acts as a decent tailwind for long entries.

Sept 26 - GLD short, re-entered TWLO on weakness

Good day so far in IPO land and rebought TWLO calls on weakness but this time the TWLO Oct 21 60 for 6.  Also picked up solid chunk of GLD Nov 18 127 puts for 2.31

Second gap down in a row and if unfilled today, would lean towards some sort of reaction tomorrow but who knows.  I wouldn't be surprised to see lots of interminable chop through October which is why I'm not eager to play the indexes.

Nice buying opportunity on the gap down

was looking strong this open and figured 63 was close enough to my 61-62 original entry to take a stab
 LN is a thing of beauty

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Sept 25 - Seasonality poor this week and through Mid October but huge bullish move probably setting up for end of year, long LN/ WFC and eyeing GLD short

Ok so right now kind of a mixed bag here but the long term picture is bullish.  This week could be choppy and ugly and not leaning strongly one way or the other this week despite the cart below.  

This is really really remarkable.  This is a pretty similar situation to 1995 where sentiment bottomed also.  If one to follow this script, we have at least 1-2 years of upside movement before the market tanks.  There is no sign of euphoria right now which marks equity tops.
 If we get another backtest of the breakout zone, it is time to back up the truck in a big way.

GDX consolidating for a potential move lower

But GLD is still within its channel which makes me think the risk is to the downside rather than the other way around.  I will probably buy GLD 126 Nov puts on Monday if GLD is at similar levels.  120 I feel is a reasonable target with a 200% profit potential as 126's are trading around 2.00
 TWLO looks ok but decided to play it safe Friday after the intraday reversal.  50/50 chance it needs a breather and a chance that this breather might cause a pattern failure which is why I would like to see it tighten up again before going long.  I never traded IPO's until this year and give credit to Jeff Kohler at   for spotlighting this one.  Lots of actionable stuff and well worth a subscription.
 This would be the ideal scenario.  1-2 days of low volume chop and rebuy around 61-62
 LN finally made its move and looking for new ATH's.  Currently up 50% on my calls.
 I am eyeing the whole IPO market here.  I missed this ACIA move but you don't step into these things in the first few days.  You wait for some consolidation and many of these things have been ripping.  Easiest money all year.

Obviously nothing here but this one is liquid and within a week, we should see something hopefully emerge as actionable.

TTD also a new IPO, watching this cook.

Friday, September 23, 2016

Sept 23 - Closed out TWLO, still long WFC, LN

If today was just a shakeout in TWLO, they got me.  I got stopped out after that intraday consolidation pattern failed and also didn't like the weaker volume today.  Would be great to hop back on this one if it either starts blasting up again Monday or we get another consolidation.  Either way, not easy trading anything nevermind IPO's at the high end of its range.  I'll take my 100% return on my Oct 55 calls.

LN is perking up nicely and will def hold this one.  Up 50% here.

WFC not going anywhere but I will give this rope.  As for the overall indexes, today's selling appeared weak but might be better to wait until Monday to see more.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Sept 22 - TWLO getting closer to a blow off top, indexes continue to punish shorts

Getting closer to the 75 target and watching volume closely.  If things spike hard, I might sell tomorrow.
 WFC hanging in there
 Not sure about the indexes but small caps and tech have been leading.  It's risk on.
 More consolidation

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Sept 21 - FOMC once again punts in scoring position, TWLO blasts off

Closed out VXX puts bought on the dip today but still holding WFC, LN, and big batch of TWLO calls.  In all had a huge day due to TWLO.  The volatility account is now up 20% and the discretionary equities account is down 8% but due to rise.  Also started a 15k experimental account that I will trade aggressively w options in an attempt to segregate risk levels btw accounts after suffering the big drawdown in the discretionary account which was due to overloaded positions in precious metals.

Expecting great things here and this has the potential for 75+.
 Should've sold and repositioned but still a bounce is possible here
 So far so good but wouldn't be surprised to see more churn and ugly movement which is why I pulled the VXX puts.  That said before end of year, I am confident we end up higher than where we are now.
 Not a great breakout, but still holding

May 15 - Closed out IWM puts for +120% and picked up DAL and HD Jun calls

I'm going to let the market do its thing this week and probably stay away from new positions until Friday unless something very good pop...