Monday, November 28, 2016

Nov 28 - Slight pullback/ short term very overbought but trend is still up

Haven't changed positions in 2 weeks and letting the market do its work.  A mild sell off is potentially around the corner but am holding for now.

Still see more upside here to the 230's.

Also have the target of low 20's for VXX

You can see how the intense hedging activity pre election provided fuel for this rally

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Nov 15 - Sector rotation as equities continue up

SPY moving up on weak volume.  Let's see if it holds.  Still holding longs, major position is a big batch of Mar ITM VXX puts.  Tech staged a big bounce today and energy also.  We might be looking at musical chairs until the end of the year.

Still have target of low 20's in VXX within 2 mo

Monday, November 14, 2016

Nov 14 - Equities consolidate

Other than tech, blue chips are consolidating for another rip up.  Will try and post more thoughts later today.

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Nov 9 - Markets rip to the upside and it isn't over yet!

The Trump win turned out to be a quickly erased non event and buyers stepped in a big way today.  This move combined with bullish seasonality might result in a really crazy rally.  I am betting at minimum a mid sized one but think we go a lot higher.  People will start freaking out and start redeploying money into their accounts and push the market higher.

Discretionary account made a huge move today.  Now +10%.  In order of holdings,
TNA, BIIB, COP ITM Jan calls, IWM ITM Dec calls
I sold WFC today and maybe reload on wkness

Volatility account is +19%
VXX Jan and Mar deep ITM puts

Cecil Fielder account is -35% (for some reason, my OTM Jan puts decreased in value today)

I posted this chart a month ago.  It is playing out to a tee.  We are going to hit 225-230 in SPY within 2 months.

Didn't even test level 2.
 We got a bear trap in NYA and now it is ripping higher.

Nov 9 - Not the end of the world

We just went from limit lock down -5% to even.  There are buyers out there.  Gold, Treasuries, and other safe haven assets getting sold off as we speak.  

Today was pretty lateral day for me and just repositioning.
I got blown out of HMSY and sold on open.  Took some profits in WFC.  Took a loss on BIDU (might be overreacting but don't like the China trade for now).  Proceeds from those parked into deep ITM IWM Dec calls.

Monday, November 7, 2016

Nov 7 - Massive short squeeze

Still need to see what will happen tomorrow but obvious to see what the markets want.

The Mar VXX puts moving nicely up over 10% already

Discretionary acct at -2%
Volatility acct at +15%
Cecil Fielder acct at -25% (due to some bone headed trades but it is well positioned to move up)

All three accounts I am guessing will be up 25-50%+ by end of year assuming the election pans out.

Friday, November 4, 2016

Nov 4 - A very high probability/ high return trade, my trade of the year

Mar VXX 55 puts @ 21.75.  I have a big batch of them.  Some Jan puts but this is my core position.

This could easily go up 50% in the next 2-3 mo.

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

Nov 2 - I am starting to buy here

Got long WFC and short VXX (Jan OTM puts).  Closed out XLF puts today also.

I think the play is to buy quality, blue chip names that you would be willing to hold in the event Trump get elected.  In other words long term holds.  In either election event, I feel strongly after some potential initial turbulence the market blasts much higher.

May 15 - Closed out IWM puts for +120% and picked up DAL and HD Jun calls

I'm going to let the market do its thing this week and probably stay away from new positions until Friday unless something very good pop...