Friday, May 26, 2017

May 24 - Looking for copper rebound

60% of FCX's revenue comes from copper sales.  If copper gets moving, should bring up FCX also

May 26 - Still long FCX, BIIB, STX, TWTR, RMBS...eyeing AAPL and SNAP next week

Not expecting much today and intermediate term looking to short the week after OPEX in June as seasonality is quite poor.  Sold BIDU and am thinking it pulls back to crew over the legion of later buyers expecting a breakout.

Other than that, don't plan on major changes to the Cecil Fielder account.

BIIB is set up super well

 FCX still churning and waiting on the Aug 13 calls
 Jun calls in STX
 Jun 2 call in TWTR
 Not ready yet but if SNAP consolidates again this is definitely a play for weekly calls

Same with AAPL

Thursday, May 25, 2017

May 25 - Getting cautious on China names, long BIIB, TWTR

Have to admit I botched this big run up in tech.  FANG names are moving and I got overly spooked by last week's move down when I sold my FB/ PCLN/ INTC waaaaay too early after the bounce.

I am not liking how lots of China names are getting whacked like MOMO, BITA, SOHU, etc.  Still think huge upside ahead but might be best to see some consolidation first.  I trimmed off 1/2 BIDU and will be watching closely.

Still long FCX, SKX, RMBS from a while ago

I wanted to see this move

BIIB has a great setup

TWTR long courtesy of Jeff Kohler at Trading Addicts.  If you haven't tried his service, very good stuff, highly suggested.

Monday, May 22, 2017

May 21 - Long BIDU

I am late to the China internet party here but BIDU is one that hasn't blasted off yet.  SOHU, CTRP, BABA, JD, ATHM have already moved.  In July 200 calls here @ 3.6.

Also still long FCX, SKX, YRD, RMBS

Thursday, May 18, 2017

May 18 - Bearish chop ahead

I got blown out of my FB calls and seeing a lot of red across the board.  I think today is just a bull trap to get the late to the party for the 'Buy the dip' buyers.  Also sold GLD/ GDX longs a couple days ago, unfortunately right before the big spike yesterday.

Shorted SPY near close for fri/mon hold. Yesterday's readings, advance/ decline ratios, TICK, weren't in freak out mode so don't think we have a bottom yet. Leaning towards some ugly chop at least for a few weeks. so so seasonality ahead also. I'm sitting in the most cash since fall of last year.

Sunday, May 14, 2017

May 14 - Long FB, FCX, GDX, PCLN, SKX

Looking to add more PCLN and INTC Monday.

Biggest position in FB right now followed by FCX Aug 13 calls.

I have a big batch of FB calls expiring this week and next.  Could be a 3-4x bagger

FB near upper end of range so will be looking to sell down my position as it goes up
 INTC Jun/ July calls I am buying on open Monday
PCLN looking to fill the gap down caused by earnings via Jun16 calls.  Looking for 2-3x on this one

Wednesday, May 10, 2017

May 10 - GDX long

Entered this one on Tuesday.

Looking for a move to around 24

May 10 - Oil rips higher

Looks like I got hit with a leg sweep last week on my energy position.  Now it's a bit late to jump on board so hoping for some kind of consolidation/ pullback.  Still bullish longer term, but afraid this thing just rips like mofo higher without stopping.

Good news is I took a speculative short via SNAP 22 May12 puts and looking to get 400-500% tomorrow.

Thursday, May 4, 2017

May 4 - Stopped out of XOP, took SPY short, long UUP Jun calls

Got stopped out of a big XOP position on open and looking to reload maybe in a few weeks to a month.  Also got short SPY as hedge and added UUP calls.  I am not confident that the market continues to blast higher for next 1-2 mo as things seem to be stalling here.

Tuesday, May 2, 2017

May 2 - Energy at a critical inflection point

I sold XBI today after it broke lower and XLF mid last week.  I am not excited about the indexes stalling out here when previously we moved higher like post Trump, Feb.  We got a pop after the French election but absolutely no follow through.  This is concerning.  SPY/ DIA stalled at previous highs and IWM made a nice move but has slowed down.  The only index which is definitively bullish is tech.

Overall markets aside, I would continue to be very bullish on energy but I don't like the seasonality ahead combined with the indexes slowing down.  Generally I will be increasing cash position and maybe lightening up energy depending on how things go.

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Apr 25 - Massively long energy, short GLD

Have been building a big position in the Cecil Fielder account in Jun calls in energy.  XOP, MRO, CHK, APA.  About 40% of the account is in slightly ITM calls.

Also have GLD Sept 117 puts at about 20% and the rest spread out between URA Jun calls (which are prob toast), XLF/ XBI calls which are doing well.

Sort of a head and shoulders type pattern here but what I am looking at is the support level which is holding despite oil moving down.  If oil start going up, energy sector should blast to the upside

Major weakness last week in miners and expecting GLD to follow.  Decided for a long term time frame w Sept 117 puts
 URA setup still alive although my calls are down 75%.  Should've bought common instead

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Apr 19 - Looking to re-short GLD at 124

It isn't there yet but hopefully it gets there!

SLV might be an easier short here

Apr 19 - More churn in equities

Movement to the upside isn't happening how I thought but it isn't going down either.  So far the indexes are up for the week.  If and when we break out of the zone, things do seem fatigued so part of me wants to play it cautious into the early summer.

NYA just looks like consolidation.
 VXX short still in place
 Still long XBI also
 Unfortunately missed a good selling point a weak ago in URA.  The set up is still good and my May calls just have to suffer through the theta decay.  We should get a bounce here.

Saturday, April 15, 2017

Apr 15 - Rebound likely next week

Was not a good last 2 weeks for the Cecil Fielder account now at 25k after hitting 50k earlier on SNAP.  Lost a string of consecutive trades, SNAP, multiple call positions on AMBA, and 3 failed attempt to short GLD.  Still set up nicely into this week and expect a rebound but the account has been looking more like Rob Deer w/o the home runs than Barry Bonds.

One thing of notice is that fear is prevalent but equities havent' suffered to such a large degree.  

VIX: VXV signalling a bottom within 0-2 days.  In the last 5 years over 18 occurrences only 2 times has this not triggered and those happened on large corrections

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Apr 11 - Went long IP, XBI, and short VXX. Stopped out of GLD short

Right now in order of size, VXX short, URA, XBI, ARNC, IP.  I don't think the market is going to crash here but it might take a few more days for things to settle for the next leg up.  There is way too much chop and late day buying for things to look bearish.  The small caps showed major strength today which is also a plus.

VIX closed deep above its BB for the first time in a while.  I took a stab at VXX puts and we will see whether it was timely
VXX volume close to the reversal zone

 NYA getting closer to a decision point which I believe is up
 URA still moving up
 Took XBI May calls today.  I like the positive divergence on RSI/ MACD
 2 yr chart on XBI
 took a small long in IP.  It looks just like a larger position I have in ARNC
 GLD got me again.  I got stopped out of a second short attempt and am standing aside

Monday, April 10, 2017

Apr 10 - SPY continues to chop, stopped out of AMBA, potential breakout in URA, still short GLD

SPY and the other indexes continue to grind.  Not much to play here until we move off of the range.  I do think at some point within next 1-2 weeks we move off this range to the upside.  When exactly I have no idea.

Just a lot of chop.  We are in the middle of the range so not point placing bets here.  If the indexes slip a bit, I will looking at biotechs and perhaps XBI calls

URA made a great move.  Found this idea courtesy of Jeff Kohler over at Trading Addicts.  I never would've traded uranium in a million years otherwise.  I am a member of his trading room and he provides great daily commentary and analysis.  A lot of recent plays I have found through his research like BIDU, BABA, LVS, and SNAP.  Highly suggested.

ARNC made feeble move up so this might not be 'the' move
 AMBA did was I was afraid of.  Linger around too long by the apex of this triangle and broke down.  It might reverse at some point but I quickly accepted losses on my calls and moved on.  If it stabilizes I might take another look.
 Still short GLD.

Sunday, April 9, 2017

Apr 9 - Hurt my back so this will be brief

Getting old.  I was tending to the garden and picked up a pot that weighed maybe 15 lbs and my lower back popped!  I am eyeing MYL, ALXN, BLUE, ABBV from the biotech side, RENN for a bounce off of support, and TWTR once it gets closer to 14 for a similar play as RENN.  I am looking at both for a strong reaction like we saw in RH, probably not as strong but potential for a sharp blast up.

also looking at re-adding energy names on pullbacks such as APA, MRO, DVN, CHK

Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Apr 5 - Stopped out of SNAP

Costly trade.  I was eyeballing the open interest in the apr monthlies and looked too vastly skewed to upside bets.  In retrospect, looked like a crowded options market.

optimistic scenario but the right shoulder is way too big.

Volume ticking up today