Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Apr 19 - Looking to re-short GLD at 124

It isn't there yet but hopefully it gets there!

SLV might be an easier short here

Apr 19 - More churn in equities

Movement to the upside isn't happening how I thought but it isn't going down either.  So far the indexes are up for the week.  If and when we break out of the zone, things do seem fatigued so part of me wants to play it cautious into the early summer.

NYA just looks like consolidation.
 VXX short still in place
 Still long XBI also
 Unfortunately missed a good selling point a weak ago in URA.  The set up is still good and my May calls just have to suffer through the theta decay.  We should get a bounce here.

Saturday, April 15, 2017

Apr 15 - Rebound likely next week

Was not a good last 2 weeks for the Cecil Fielder account now at 25k after hitting 50k earlier on SNAP.  Lost a string of consecutive trades, SNAP, multiple call positions on AMBA, and 3 failed attempt to short GLD.  Still set up nicely into this week and expect a rebound but the account has been looking more like Rob Deer w/o the home runs than Barry Bonds.

One thing of notice is that fear is prevalent but equities havent' suffered to such a large degree.  

VIX: VXV signalling a bottom within 0-2 days.  In the last 5 years over 18 occurrences only 2 times has this not triggered and those happened on large corrections

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Apr 11 - Went long IP, XBI, and short VXX. Stopped out of GLD short

Right now in order of size, VXX short, URA, XBI, ARNC, IP.  I don't think the market is going to crash here but it might take a few more days for things to settle for the next leg up.  There is way too much chop and late day buying for things to look bearish.  The small caps showed major strength today which is also a plus.

VIX closed deep above its BB for the first time in a while.  I took a stab at VXX puts and we will see whether it was timely
VXX volume close to the reversal zone

 NYA getting closer to a decision point which I believe is up
 URA still moving up
 Took XBI May calls today.  I like the positive divergence on RSI/ MACD
 2 yr chart on XBI
 took a small long in IP.  It looks just like a larger position I have in ARNC
 GLD got me again.  I got stopped out of a second short attempt and am standing aside

Monday, April 10, 2017

Apr 10 - SPY continues to chop, stopped out of AMBA, potential breakout in URA, still short GLD

SPY and the other indexes continue to grind.  Not much to play here until we move off of the range.  I do think at some point within next 1-2 weeks we move off this range to the upside.  When exactly I have no idea.

Just a lot of chop.  We are in the middle of the range so not point placing bets here.  If the indexes slip a bit, I will looking at biotechs and perhaps XBI calls

URA made a great move.  Found this idea courtesy of Jeff Kohler over at Trading Addicts.  I never would've traded uranium in a million years otherwise.  I am a member of his trading room and he provides great daily commentary and analysis.  A lot of recent plays I have found through his research like BIDU, BABA, LVS, and SNAP.  Highly suggested.

ARNC made feeble move up so this might not be 'the' move
 AMBA did was I was afraid of.  Linger around too long by the apex of this triangle and broke down.  It might reverse at some point but I quickly accepted losses on my calls and moved on.  If it stabilizes I might take another look.
 Still short GLD.

Sunday, April 9, 2017

Apr 9 - Hurt my back so this will be brief

Getting old.  I was tending to the garden and picked up a pot that weighed maybe 15 lbs and my lower back popped!  I am eyeing MYL, ALXN, BLUE, ABBV from the biotech side, RENN for a bounce off of support, and TWTR once it gets closer to 14 for a similar play as RENN.  I am looking at both for a strong reaction like we saw in RH, probably not as strong but potential for a sharp blast up.

also looking at re-adding energy names on pullbacks such as APA, MRO, DVN, CHK

Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Apr 5 - Stopped out of SNAP

Costly trade.  I was eyeballing the open interest in the apr monthlies and looked too vastly skewed to upside bets.  In retrospect, looked like a crowded options market.

optimistic scenario but the right shoulder is way too big.

Volume ticking up today

Sunday, April 2, 2017

Apr 2 - AMBA primed for breakout

I really like this one as it's lining up on the daily and the longer term weekly.  Entering this one Monday.

Saturday, April 1, 2017

Apr 1 - SNAP consolidation - breakout coming?

Sitting on pile of Apr21 25.5 calls @.55

All 3 scenarios I have are bullish.  Not discounting a flush out to shake out more bulls Mon/Tues.  I doubt we will start a sustained move down because of the weak selling the last few days and the demand of buyers looking to get in at the IPO level of 17-18.

The daily chart.  If this is just consolidation, the first big bar up should come with a volume pop like on Mar 22.

scenario 1.  this scenario suggest slow melt up starting Mon

 scenario 2.  Bulls get shaken out to empty the bus for a sharp ramp higher.
 scenario 3.  one more day of chop and continuation of the move

Thursday, March 30, 2017

Mar 30 - Added energy names in CHK, MRO, APA July calls

Caught a small pullback.  Not the best entry but I have a multi mo horizon.  SNAP continues to bleed and it probably needs today/ tomorrow to settle.  Also needs to give bulls like me more heartburn before it can go potentially up.

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Mar 29 - Energy + SNAP

Lots of good names out there ready to make huge moves.  I unfortunately missed adding to my current energy holdings and will want to add mid summer ATM calls.

some ideas....

target -mid strike price return
APA July ATM calls 62 52.5 3.65 2.60
MRO July ATM calls 20 16 1.27 3.15
COG July ATM calls 28 25 1.9 1.58
HES Jun ATM calls 60 50 2.7 3.70
DVN July ATM calls 50 41 3.1 2.90

SNAP put a scare and I got stopped out of 1/2 of my position on the open but I re-added some after it stabilized.  My stop was too tight but it happens.  Looking to add more tomorrow.

Saturday, March 25, 2017

Mar 25 - the Cecil Fielder account starting to heat up

After getting whacked for 75% loss last year in the Cecil Fielder account, I reloaded the account which is small, high risk account that trades mainly options and after a middling February, things are starting to get moving.  I've tripled it in the first 3 mo of this year.

Some not unexpected things:

-I am still way way over my targeted average trade per month.  Right now I am at about 35/ mo which is an improvement from last year but I want to get down to about 20-25/mo.
-Making too many errors.  15 of the 100 trades these last 3 months are errors or just badly configured trades.  I need to drop that to maybe 5 errors and hopefully eradicate them entirely
-Countertrend trades are not working.  We are in a crazy bull market.  Should I be surprised?  No.  Time to cut back on these.  They aren't worth it.
-Win rate is in the low 50%'s.  If I pull my errors it gets into the 60% range.  If I tighten up my entries more it gets to 65%.
-avg win is +690 and avg loss is -302

So going forward 65% win rate, 5 errors per 100 trades, and 20-25 trades/ mo

Some surprising things:
-TWLO I knew was causing me pain but it is by far my biggest loser.  It is like sewage in the system.  
-my top five winners are 

SNAP +12,502 (this has potential to turn into a trade of the year candidate)
BABA +7,138
LVS +5,882
YY +4,940
LN +3,760

I did not think BABA would be so high

The biggest losers
TWLO -5,986
SPY -2,872
AMZN -1,896
IBB -1,410
QCOM -1,108

In general my SPY/ QQQ/ IWM trades have not gone well but a lot worse than I thought.

Despite too many errors, I am pleased with the equity curve so far

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Mar 22 - SNAP

Apologies for the lack of posting, have been very busy lately and will try and keep up.  I entered an array of Apr/ May/ July SNAP calls on Thurs/ Fri/ Mon.  There is potential for a 10 bagger here.

All other positions are the same except I let go of SOHU and added BIDU today.

Current holdings in order of size, SNAP, LVS, BIDU, ACIA, TWLO, APA, XOM, FCX.  Still looking to add more energy names soon.  I also want to sell down the IPO names, it is adding major risk to the portfolio.

SNAP sentiment super bearish.  the MM's might jam this one up in the next month.
ACIA finally moving.  Looking for exit tomorrow.  Calls up 200% now.  TWLO while still a decent setup is dragging.

 added to BIDU today and this is the line in the sand.
 LVS pullback looks healthy so far.  I like the fact this up move has been steady and not explosive which would be more sustainable.

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Mar 14 - Added energy names

Starting w 2 long term entries in APA, XOM Jun/ July ITM calls and 2 short term entries via USO, XLE calls expiring this week.  I'm not totally convinced this is the bottom in oil/ energy so still have 1/2 more allocated to buy energy.

Sold YY after a really nice boost yesterday at 7+% and took the proceeds to buy today's energy names.

I love the setup here.  If it fails hard it will be obvious to get out.  Good risk to reward.

APA looks great here

BIDU a bit frustrating as a lot of China names have blasted off.  Interestingly BABA is struggling also.  I have Jun 180 calls from a week ago and theta burn is starting to take effect.

Not in this one yet but eyeing it
 TWLO I re-entered smaller yesterday
 Sold YY yesterday on the spike
 LVS still cooking.  BIDU/ LVS are my largest positions by far then collectively energy