Tuesday, July 11, 2017

July 11 - Metals flying, closed QQQ long

My XME (70%), FCX, GDX, X longs moved well today and XME may be ready to break out.  I've been teased so many times I am gather my expectations.

Pretty amazing how out of synch the indices are with each other.  I was originally thinking some July swoon but it might just chop around for a while.  I mean it could chop for the whole summer.  Unless playing short time frames I don't see much of an edge in SPY/ QQQ.

QQQ got close enough to the target so I closed it out

If this damn thing could break through resistance then could be clear skies until 35

 This could chop for months like last year.

Monday, July 10, 2017

July 10 - Tech bouncing and back on metals bandwagon, long XME, FCX, X, GDX

Flipped back to my previous big position in metals with the early morning strength.  FCX looks like a strong breakout and steel looks ready to pop.

QQQ making a nice move and looking to sell at gap fill around 140.

 FCX making a big move today.  If it sticks this might turn into a runner.
 GDX at support
 X making a rounded bottom
 XME still below lots of congestion.  If it closes above 31 it could move to 35 quickly.

Sunday, July 9, 2017

July 9 - Long small QQQ, still short XME

Closed SPY short on open Friday for a small gain and flipped to long QQQ later in the day.  Not the best entry but the positive divergence should give it a bump early this week.  With equities, until that 3-5% SPY correction happens (we might need to wait until Sept/ Oct for it), I am going to be a lot quicker to pull profits when I see them.

The gonzo metals/ commodities trade I am still eyeing but XME seemed to be struggling so wait and see here with a small short.  If it clears resistance I will hop back on.

False breakdown but this chop is pretty ugly.

Thursday, July 6, 2017

July 6 - switched to short SPY/ XME yesterday

I reversed my aggressive bullish position in XME/ FCX after seeing the market stall a bit and seeing no volume confirmation on the breakout from the wedge.

Sold everything Weds on open and put on SPY/ XME short at close.

Thursday, June 29, 2017

Jun 29 - Going for broke in commodities

I added COP July28 46 calls at .52 and now am allocated 10% COP, 60% XME Sept 33 calls, 30% FCX 13 Aug calls in the Cecil Fielder account.  If USD collapses in the coming months, it will provide a major tailwind to my positions.  A lot of the options positions have potential to increase 5-10x.

The overcrowded USD long trade is falling back to the lower end of the zone and may overshoot

FCX finally broke out the zone.  Hopefully it sticks as time is running short on the Aug 13 calls @ .52
 XME I have adequate time in Sept so a back test of the trendline won't kill the positions.
Have Sept15 33 calls @ .39
 COP July 28 46 @ .52 calls picked up this morning.

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Jun 27 - Breakdown in FANG

Took profits on some of the puts.  Think since the complacency in the put/call ratio still exists there's more downside.

My big XME position suffered a reversal so even metals isn't immune to this

Tomorrow probably will be a down day and if not tomorrow, very likely more weakness ahead

Monday, June 26, 2017

Jun 26 - Failed breakout in FANG or just noise?

I got lucky and sold within the first 30 of the open with my AAPL calls which got me a double.  I was expecting to jump back in upon seeing consolidation but they just rolled over.

I ended up taking a modest position in AMZN/ FB July puts near the close that might take a week to work if they do.  I was expecting a breakout today based on the strong first hour but it burned off fast.
This is just anecdotal but investors seem really confident that this recent dip in big tech will bounce fast.  I think it's 50/50 that it is since the last dip was pretty large and the negative divergences popping up.

Also re-added XME Sept 33 calls and added X Sept calls on weakness.  I am going to have a huge XME/ X position within 1-2 weeks maybe earlier.

Put/ call ratio is very low which isn't always an actionable indicator to go short but has had reasonable success lately in next day drops..around 70-75%.  Investors are very complacent now.

The CPC ratio has marked next day weakness the majority of the time.  I was surprised to see the ratio so low after seeing the market dump hard in the afternoon.

 Daily negative divergence on FB.  Will it realize?
 AMZN looks like it could hit the yellow zone but could also keep going higher.

XME could drop back to support but I got trigger happy and got the Sept 33 calls.  Looking to add 31 calls soon to make my overall position more conservative.
 X could make a huge move to 32+ soon
 AAPL looked like it would break out but fizzled out hard
 FB fizzling, no breakout to ATH
 AMZN also fizzling
 GOOG failed breakout
 NFLX looks the best here
 SNAP I might look to take a small position EOW if volume drops and price slows down

Saturday, June 24, 2017

Jun 24 - Commodities might be forming a bottom, tech looks to recover its mini crash

Took some AAPL Jul 7 128 calls to see if it can play 'catch up' with the other FAANG's.
XME/ FCX looking great and looking to add tomorrow/ Tues.

AAPL is lagging here and either it is stuck in the mud or bound to blast up.
It hasn't been able to break resistance yet and is below 38% retracement levels.

QQQ at 62% retracement off the low and broke through resistance.
FB is almost 100% retraced.
AMZN at 75%.
NFLX at 50%.
GOOG at 62%.

So I am looking for at minimum a 62% retracement for AAPL which brings it to about 150.5

Thursday, June 8, 2017

Jun 8 - Added XME Sept 33 calls

It finally poked out of its range and this one could turn into a biggie.  My FCX Aug calls may get moving too.  We'll see.  Been running so cold recently maybe this is the break.

Just moving out of the range and hopefully it closes well
 Upside target on weekly is 40
 FCX also perking up but so many teases so far.  It needs to definitively break up and out

Wednesday, June 7, 2017

Jun 7 - Blown out of XOP calls

Was up over 100% on the calls as of yesterday's close to down 50% when I sold them.  Ouch.  A lot of people were blindsided by oil getting slammed after the report today.  Still in BIIB and watching that one carefully after a red day today.  It needs to either consolidate or move up big tomorrow.

Monday, June 5, 2017

Jun 5 - Long XOP

Added to Jun 9 XOP 33 calls I picked up Friday and now have cost basis of .21
Looking for a pop to 34 but not sure what will happen after that.  I do like this spot as a long term buy though.

Positive divergence is really coiling up so this one might rip hard if it plays out
 Same thing with oil.

Thursday, June 1, 2017

Jun 1 - Strong bounce to start the month

The indexes are flying today which is not atypical of a first day of the month.  The  market is still holding up and seeing some new ATH's in the indexes and blue chip names.  Breadth recently has been quite poor though so I am eyeing a short in the week after OPEX.

Sold SKX calls for 80%, added to BIIB Jun calls and have expectations of 2-3x

Was targeting 27-28 but seems to but struggling here

SPY continues to blast up and the upper yellow box scenario isn't materializing as I thought it would.

Eyeing long in AAPL soon
 Added to BIIB Jun calls.  Great setup

Another SNAP setup.  Eyeing next week's 22 calls and looking for SNAP to hit 21 to buy them