Friday, August 25, 2017

Aug 25 - Re-entered (again) GLD short, long LVS, AMZN, NFLX, SHAK

I have been stopped out twice in last few weeks trying to short GLD.  I have a pretty sizeable position of Nov/ Dec GLD/ GDX puts.

Also have a big position of DITM LVS Nov calls.  I really like this set up.

Strangely enough FANG is setting up well but I'm a bit weary about the bearish seasonality around the corner.

LVS is a fantastic setup.
 Excellent chance we retest ATH in LVS by Nov
 NFLX a more difficult long but expecting support soon
 AMZN looks prime to explode up

Friday, August 4, 2017

Aug 4 - Re-entered GLD short

Jumped back in on the open as it looks like we have a short term trend change.  Annoyed it decided to leave without me but worth the chase as there are 3-5 points more of downside here.

Thursday, August 3, 2017

Aug 3 - Cut GLD short, more chop in the indexes

Biggest position now in DAL which I added more to today.  Earnings torpedoed the DDD position and exited URA yesterday after seeing it not breakout and GLD short today (still waiting on this, the yen just won't stop barreling up and it needs to slow down for the GLD trade to work).

Still have small GBT, NTES

I got excited yesterday when GLD poked through the trendline which has been a pretty good indicator of trend change the past several months.  Today it did probably the worst possible thing...nothing.  An ideal top would be a big gap up then a fade or some sort of volatility.
Right now the possible is happening which is making this a risky short.  It looked much better yesterday.

A potential pain trade scenario would be for miners to break out a few days, engaged a lot of longs + cause a stop run on shorts and THEN reverse hard back down.  That would crush a lot of participants.

Longer time frame you can see it speed of the decline isn't there.  Could drop like a rock but odds increased today that this continues to go up.
 Same thing with silver.  It could easy take another leg up.
 GDX also isn't falling hard.  Some minor underperformance relative to gold but not enough to be actionable.
 Maybe GLD hits 123 then reverses?  Will be in wait and see mode
 SLV at resistance but could easy poke a bit through before reversing.
 UUP is due for a violent spike up.  It is coming soon.  Within a few days to a couple weeks I'd say.  At that point, GLD will probably reverse.
 I think a bear trap where we break support and reverse higher is a very possible scenario if we don't bounce here
 Entered modest X long.  Very good risk to reward
 Exited URA yesterday.  Didn't like how it didn';t break out when it was all set up to do so.
 SPY just churning.  Nothing bad or good here.  Just chop.
 My biggest position is DAL now.  At minimum looking for 52 in next 1-2 weeks.

Sunday, July 30, 2017

July 30 - Long URA, DDD, DAL, NTES, MOMO, GBT, CMCM and short GLD

Entered a handful of longs with the proceeds from XME, X, FCX longs.  Friday might have been a decent day to reenter long but I am holding off as there might be more downside.

I am extremely bullish URA, DDD, DAL for next few weeks.

I am also highly leaning towards a market correction of 3-5% in the next 2 mo.  Feel like the probability is 80%+.  A lot of complacency right now with put/call ratios staying in very low ranges.

My goal is to raise cash the next few weeks and hopefully avoid the downturn.

Biggest position is URA long.  It looks almost too good to be true

GLD short and as usual I am very uneasy.  Have been a few days early on a few of these trades.
My proxy GDX looks like it is at resistance.  If GDX breaks up, I will fold this trade.
 GDX right there and will break up or down soon.
 This is a big reason why I like the GLD short.  USD is due to bounce this week.

Big position in DDD now and earnings is Tues.
 Picked up an array of DAL calls and expecting a 2-3 bounce in next few weeks.
mid sized position in NTES, also will be affected by earnings.  Aug 9.
 much smaller position in GBT, earnings Aug 9

Thursday, July 27, 2017

July 27 - Sold FCX yesterday and entered GLD short today

GDX is signalling another move down in GLD but longer term it is setting up for a big move up this fall.  Will enter long GLD/ GDX on a retest of the lower zone if we get there.

FCX I sold yesterday after seeing the weakness in steel names.  Still looking to re-enter but want to see things play out.

Also entered longs in DDD, NTES, URA, GBT w the proceeds of the oversized XME calls.

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

July 26 - Sold X, XME calls

Still bullish intermediate term but I sold X Sept calls for a double and XME also for a double.  Holding FCX Sept calls (now up 275%) as copper is ripping and has no correlation really to the Trump risk that is part of steel.  Will probably enter NTES calls today as China as a whole is moving really well.  I should've been in some of these names earlier.

I still like FCX and have a target of 17-18

Sold X calls when X was up around 10% this morning

Still have a target of 35-38 on XME but want to see how this weakness in steel is playing out.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

July 11 - Metals flying, closed QQQ long

My XME (70%), FCX, GDX, X longs moved well today and XME may be ready to break out.  I've been teased so many times I am gather my expectations.

Pretty amazing how out of synch the indices are with each other.  I was originally thinking some July swoon but it might just chop around for a while.  I mean it could chop for the whole summer.  Unless playing short time frames I don't see much of an edge in SPY/ QQQ.

QQQ got close enough to the target so I closed it out

If this damn thing could break through resistance then could be clear skies until 35

 This could chop for months like last year.

Monday, July 10, 2017

July 10 - Tech bouncing and back on metals bandwagon, long XME, FCX, X, GDX

Flipped back to my previous big position in metals with the early morning strength.  FCX looks like a strong breakout and steel looks ready to pop.

QQQ making a nice move and looking to sell at gap fill around 140.

 FCX making a big move today.  If it sticks this might turn into a runner.
 GDX at support
 X making a rounded bottom
 XME still below lots of congestion.  If it closes above 31 it could move to 35 quickly.

Sunday, July 9, 2017

July 9 - Long small QQQ, still short XME

Closed SPY short on open Friday for a small gain and flipped to long QQQ later in the day.  Not the best entry but the positive divergence should give it a bump early this week.  With equities, until that 3-5% SPY correction happens (we might need to wait until Sept/ Oct for it), I am going to be a lot quicker to pull profits when I see them.

The gonzo metals/ commodities trade I am still eyeing but XME seemed to be struggling so wait and see here with a small short.  If it clears resistance I will hop back on.

False breakdown but this chop is pretty ugly.

Thursday, July 6, 2017

July 6 - switched to short SPY/ XME yesterday

I reversed my aggressive bullish position in XME/ FCX after seeing the market stall a bit and seeing no volume confirmation on the breakout from the wedge.

Sold everything Weds on open and put on SPY/ XME short at close.

Thursday, June 29, 2017

Jun 29 - Going for broke in commodities

I added COP July28 46 calls at .52 and now am allocated 10% COP, 60% XME Sept 33 calls, 30% FCX 13 Aug calls in the Cecil Fielder account.  If USD collapses in the coming months, it will provide a major tailwind to my positions.  A lot of the options positions have potential to increase 5-10x.

The overcrowded USD long trade is falling back to the lower end of the zone and may overshoot

FCX finally broke out the zone.  Hopefully it sticks as time is running short on the Aug 13 calls @ .52
 XME I have adequate time in Sept so a back test of the trendline won't kill the positions.
Have Sept15 33 calls @ .39
 COP July 28 46 @ .52 calls picked up this morning.

May 15 - Closed out IWM puts for +120% and picked up DAL and HD Jun calls

I'm going to let the market do its thing this week and probably stay away from new positions until Friday unless something very good pop...