Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Feb 28 - Torpedoed on TGT, added BIDU long, GLD short

I made a small wager on TGT and it got blown out of the water.  This probably isn't a good sign for my JWN position but will see for now.

After a bit of deliberation decided to add GLD Jun 118 puts @3.05, I missed a huge move on GDX yesterday which was probably the worst mistake I have made in the last 6 mo.  I am looking for a 109-110 target by June.

Also added Jun BIDU 180 calls at 8.05.  Think this multi yr consolidation will end within 1-2 mo

Monday, February 27, 2017

Feb 27 - Closed GDX short, added TWLO, TGT and more LVS calls

Gold breached a level I wanted to hold and am stepping aside with some small profit.  I am also weary Trump's tax plan announcement might trigger an equities selloff and create a push into gold as a fear trade.

LVS is working nicely and I added a small amount of May calls to my June position and TWLO, TGT Apr calls.

Friday, February 24, 2017

Feb 24 - Long setups 1-2 weeks from now in XLE/ XBI

I like both of these to make strong moves once they drift down a bit further.  Particularly XBI which could make a crazy move ala the blue box

 XLE close to my buy zone

Feb 24 - Indexes consolidate/ pullback, retail sector gaining traction

Sold 2/3 LN and probably looking to sell the rest today.  GLD made a new high which was unwelcome vs my GDX short but I am hanging on here as the negative divergence seems pretty strong.

Nice spike today and I doubled my Mar LN 40 calls

I don't like how GLD is creeping above resistance but will hold my GDX puts for now

 GDX struggling at resistance
 Very strong negative divergence in GDX vs GLD.  Also seeing GDX sell off intraday.  I am leaning towards GDX breaking down not catching up w GLD
 I will be a big buyer in BIDU once it hits 170

JWN is churning a lot which is making a good base to make a move up

Saturday, February 18, 2017

Feb 18 - Long LVS, LN and short GDX

Once again got stopped out of a quick short attempt and probably will pass on shorting and just wait for consolidation/ pullback to go aggressively long into April.   The indexes are insanely strong.

The gaming ETF is consolidating and a solid and sustained move for the rest of the year is lining up
 Took on another short in precious metals.  This time against GDX via a load of ITM Jun puts.  I am looking for 18-20.  It looks like it is making a bull flag but under the hood on smaller time frames it has looked weak and even if it moves up, I think it will run out of gas soon

On the weekly close to the upper BB and being topped out on the stochs.
 LVS looks very interesting and I got Jun calls half in the money

 I don't know what else to say.  From a technical standpoint this is falling within the once every 5-10 years event.  Extremely overbought but the dips are so aggressively bought up I have given up on shorting and will stick to existing positions.  I am eyeing a longer term energy long but XOP/ XLE aren't quite there yet

Friday, February 17, 2017

Feb 17 - Bearish stat on big VIX spikes when SPY is also up

Courtesy of 
When gains 10% or more and finishes positive

Feb 17 - Short SPY target 228

Looking at this as a swing trade through late March.  Seasonality is weak the next couple weeks.  This is the 3rd or 4th time I've tried to short and think this might be it.  Expecting a slow dribble down, not a fast move, just something that lets the high pressure ease so we can launch into another move up in April.  I am very interested in energy names at that point.

Thursday, February 16, 2017

Feb 16 - Still waiting to re-short

I caught a little on the short side but the late day ramp ate up most profit and once again closed them out.  I exited GLD/ GDX also as I wasn't impressed by the move considering how much the dollar sold off.  Most of the things I am looking at just don't look interesting, either super overbought but not ready to short (I was too early this week and underestimated the strength of the rally) or not overbought and floating above a buy point which would mean I need to wait.

Are going to have a big correction?  I don't know but I am leaning towards something btw 2-4% max and a very slow consolidation.  Need to see more weakness in the short time frames to short but we might be close.

Things I am eyeing on a pullback are XLE, XOP, CMG, WYNN, GRMN.  Might not be feasible until March.

If GLD/ GDX struggles to go up 1-2% more, I will be interested in shorting them again.

Feb 16 - Re-added IWM short, long GLD, GDX, FXE

This was a very poorly timed week for me but at least things are moving in the right direction.
I got stopped out of AMZN, IBB, IWM shorts twice this week and lost a big chunk of change being overpositioned and 2 days early. This morning I re-added the IWM short.  May add IBB also.

Yesterday I flipped to long GLD, GDX, FXE.  So far helping to recoup some of the damage getting in front of the bull parade too early.

Noticing not quite the movement in miners that I expected but will wait here

GLD moving well

IWM negative divergence set up working

Room to fall in the yellow box and maybe more if this sell off turns into something

Monday, February 13, 2017

Feb 13 - Closed GLD short, still short AMZN, added IWM and IBB short

Although I am looking for a big move down in GLD, the risk of equity sell off is making this a tough trade bc of the inverse correlation.  I closed it out for the second time at the open.  I am keeping an open mind that it might make another leg up.  I thought about re-adding at close but selling volume and pace was weak today.  I am looking for that fearful sell off and it hasn't happened yet.

Took IWM short at close for 1-3 day trade

 Took IBB short at close for 1 mo trade

GLD is being stubborn.  Not enough selling pressure and today's volume was a lot weaker than yesterday's buying volume.  What I use to measure selling pressure is the steepness of the decline.  It looks like the one couple weeks ago which was quickly bought up.  If we move up I might look at 119 to short again.
 Angle of decline isn't strong enough to stay short
 I got demolished on my AMZN puts but held them as resistance held.  This trade needs to start working within 1-2 days
 LVS looking ok but wary of the indexes being so overbought that a sell off would damage this position
 Pharma is looking like a great short now.

Saturday, February 11, 2017

Feb 12 - Short GLD, AMZN

Took this one via Mar 800 puts.  Got the idea from Jeff Kohler at Option Addict

Short GLD via 116 Apr puts.  I like the RSI signal and that it is near an area of congestion which could produce selling.

Friday, February 10, 2017

Feb 10 - Sold BABA/ BIDU, eyeing GLD short

In case BABA / BIDU consolidate again, I will jump aboard but for now watching.  Still long TGT, LVS, JWN in that order and closed a GLD short I picked up yesterday on today's open.  I am looking to go short GLD in size on a bounce.

Not liking this stall near previous highs
 BIDU looks strong but would like to see if it can break out of this zone.  It hasn't had the same amount of energy as the previous move up that I captured
 LVS looks good
 TGT I might buy more depending on the close

Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Feb 8 - Still long BIDU, BABA, JWN - added TGT

Still sitting on big position of BIDU and BABA.  Some JWN and added TGT to the mix today.  Retail might be about to turn up for the next 4-8 wks.  Stopped out of QCOM late last week and took profits in M on the buyout rumor spike.

China play is going well.

This has been the best 3-4 mo stretch I have ever had.  I am currently flat in the volatility account and have been for a few weeks and only have small positions in the discretionary account.  The Cecil Fielder account is up 90% on the year.  It is a high risk account so I could easily get whacked at any time.

Thursday, February 2, 2017

Feb 2 - Still long M, QCOM, BIDU

I dumped NTNX yesterday and really undecided on what this thing is going to do, which means it will blast off now.

Have a small position in QCOM which is doing nothing but bleeding.

My M position is making a nice move and I am debating re-adding JWN to the mix as it looks very good also.

Added more BIDU in the last couple days and it is set up beautifully - which makes me nervous.  BIDU is by far my largest position.

Volatility is lowering and resting on support.  China stocks in general seem to be holding up well recently which bodes well

JWN consolidating
 M making a bounce
 NTNX is flopping around a bit too much for me.  I have taken 3 stabs at this and doesn't break out.  Which is making me think this is looking more and more like a coin flip to upside or downside

Continue negative divergence but I am not looking at this as a short signal, more as strong caution
 May jump back in XBI and watching closely

July 11 - GLD sucks

stopped out of GLD yesterday for -25%.  Holding off on reentry and maybe will enter if we drop another level. SPY on the other hand is crus...