Monday, February 13, 2017

Feb 13 - Closed GLD short, still short AMZN, added IWM and IBB short

Although I am looking for a big move down in GLD, the risk of equity sell off is making this a tough trade bc of the inverse correlation.  I closed it out for the second time at the open.  I am keeping an open mind that it might make another leg up.  I thought about re-adding at close but selling volume and pace was weak today.  I am looking for that fearful sell off and it hasn't happened yet.

Took IWM short at close for 1-3 day trade

 Took IBB short at close for 1 mo trade

GLD is being stubborn.  Not enough selling pressure and today's volume was a lot weaker than yesterday's buying volume.  What I use to measure selling pressure is the steepness of the decline.  It looks like the one couple weeks ago which was quickly bought up.  If we move up I might look at 119 to short again.
 Angle of decline isn't strong enough to stay short
 I got demolished on my AMZN puts but held them as resistance held.  This trade needs to start working within 1-2 days
 LVS looking ok but wary of the indexes being so overbought that a sell off would damage this position
 Pharma is looking like a great short now.

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Jan 20 - Equities caution signal, short SPY, NFLX

Call buying has come back and very good chance of a pullback here