Saturday, March 25, 2017

Mar 25 - the Cecil Fielder account starting to heat up

After getting whacked for 75% loss last year in the Cecil Fielder account, I reloaded the account which is small, high risk account that trades mainly options and after a middling February, things are starting to get moving.  I've tripled it in the first 3 mo of this year.

Some not unexpected things:

-I am still way way over my targeted average trade per month.  Right now I am at about 35/ mo which is an improvement from last year but I want to get down to about 20-25/mo.
-Making too many errors.  15 of the 100 trades these last 3 months are errors or just badly configured trades.  I need to drop that to maybe 5 errors and hopefully eradicate them entirely
-Countertrend trades are not working.  We are in a crazy bull market.  Should I be surprised?  No.  Time to cut back on these.  They aren't worth it.
-Win rate is in the low 50%'s.  If I pull my errors it gets into the 60% range.  If I tighten up my entries more it gets to 65%.
-avg win is +690 and avg loss is -302

So going forward 65% win rate, 5 errors per 100 trades, and 20-25 trades/ mo

Some surprising things:
-TWLO I knew was causing me pain but it is by far my biggest loser.  It is like sewage in the system.  
-my top five winners are 

SNAP +12,502 (this has potential to turn into a trade of the year candidate)
BABA +7,138
LVS +5,882
YY +4,940
LN +3,760

I did not think BABA would be so high

The biggest losers
TWLO -5,986
SPY -2,872
AMZN -1,896
IBB -1,410
QCOM -1,108

In general my SPY/ QQQ/ IWM trades have not gone well but a lot worse than I thought.

Despite too many errors, I am pleased with the equity curve so far

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