Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Apr 25 - Massively long energy, short GLD

Have been building a big position in the Cecil Fielder account in Jun calls in energy.  XOP, MRO, CHK, APA.  About 40% of the account is in slightly ITM calls.

Also have GLD Sept 117 puts at about 20% and the rest spread out between URA Jun calls (which are prob toast), XLF/ XBI calls which are doing well.

Sort of a head and shoulders type pattern here but what I am looking at is the support level which is holding despite oil moving down.  If oil start going up, energy sector should blast to the upside

Major weakness last week in miners and expecting GLD to follow.  Decided for a long term time frame w Sept 117 puts
 URA setup still alive although my calls are down 75%.  Should've bought common instead

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Apr 19 - Looking to re-short GLD at 124

It isn't there yet but hopefully it gets there!

SLV might be an easier short here

Apr 19 - More churn in equities

Movement to the upside isn't happening how I thought but it isn't going down either.  So far the indexes are up for the week.  If and when we break out of the zone, things do seem fatigued so part of me wants to play it cautious into the early summer.

NYA just looks like consolidation.
 VXX short still in place
 Still long XBI also
 Unfortunately missed a good selling point a weak ago in URA.  The set up is still good and my May calls just have to suffer through the theta decay.  We should get a bounce here.

Saturday, April 15, 2017

Apr 15 - Rebound likely next week

Was not a good last 2 weeks for the Cecil Fielder account now at 25k after hitting 50k earlier on SNAP.  Lost a string of consecutive trades, SNAP, multiple call positions on AMBA, and 3 failed attempt to short GLD.  Still set up nicely into this week and expect a rebound but the account has been looking more like Rob Deer w/o the home runs than Barry Bonds.

One thing of notice is that fear is prevalent but equities havent' suffered to such a large degree.  

VIX: VXV signalling a bottom within 0-2 days.  In the last 5 years over 18 occurrences only 2 times has this not triggered and those happened on large corrections

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Apr 11 - Went long IP, XBI, and short VXX. Stopped out of GLD short

Right now in order of size, VXX short, URA, XBI, ARNC, IP.  I don't think the market is going to crash here but it might take a few more days for things to settle for the next leg up.  There is way too much chop and late day buying for things to look bearish.  The small caps showed major strength today which is also a plus.

VIX closed deep above its BB for the first time in a while.  I took a stab at VXX puts and we will see whether it was timely
VXX volume close to the reversal zone

 NYA getting closer to a decision point which I believe is up
 URA still moving up
 Took XBI May calls today.  I like the positive divergence on RSI/ MACD
 2 yr chart on XBI
 took a small long in IP.  It looks just like a larger position I have in ARNC
 GLD got me again.  I got stopped out of a second short attempt and am standing aside

Monday, April 10, 2017

Apr 10 - SPY continues to chop, stopped out of AMBA, potential breakout in URA, still short GLD

SPY and the other indexes continue to grind.  Not much to play here until we move off of the range.  I do think at some point within next 1-2 weeks we move off this range to the upside.  When exactly I have no idea.

Just a lot of chop.  We are in the middle of the range so not point placing bets here.  If the indexes slip a bit, I will looking at biotechs and perhaps XBI calls

URA made a great move.  Found this idea courtesy of Jeff Kohler over at Trading Addicts.  I never would've traded uranium in a million years otherwise.  I am a member of his trading room and he provides great daily commentary and analysis.  A lot of recent plays I have found through his research like BIDU, BABA, LVS, and SNAP.  Highly suggested.

ARNC made feeble move up so this might not be 'the' move
 AMBA did was I was afraid of.  Linger around too long by the apex of this triangle and broke down.  It might reverse at some point but I quickly accepted losses on my calls and moved on.  If it stabilizes I might take another look.
 Still short GLD.

Sunday, April 9, 2017

Apr 9 - Hurt my back so this will be brief

Getting old.  I was tending to the garden and picked up a pot that weighed maybe 15 lbs and my lower back popped!  I am eyeing MYL, ALXN, BLUE, ABBV from the biotech side, RENN for a bounce off of support, and TWTR once it gets closer to 14 for a similar play as RENN.  I am looking at both for a strong reaction like we saw in RH, probably not as strong but potential for a sharp blast up.

also looking at re-adding energy names on pullbacks such as APA, MRO, DVN, CHK

Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Apr 5 - Stopped out of SNAP

Costly trade.  I was eyeballing the open interest in the apr monthlies and looked too vastly skewed to upside bets.  In retrospect, looked like a crowded options market.

optimistic scenario but the right shoulder is way too big.

Volume ticking up today

Sunday, April 2, 2017

Apr 2 - AMBA primed for breakout

I really like this one as it's lining up on the daily and the longer term weekly.  Entering this one Monday.

Saturday, April 1, 2017

Apr 1 - SNAP consolidation - breakout coming?

Sitting on pile of Apr21 25.5 calls @.55

All 3 scenarios I have are bullish.  Not discounting a flush out to shake out more bulls Mon/Tues.  I doubt we will start a sustained move down because of the weak selling the last few days and the demand of buyers looking to get in at the IPO level of 17-18.

The daily chart.  If this is just consolidation, the first big bar up should come with a volume pop like on Mar 22.

scenario 1.  this scenario suggest slow melt up starting Mon

 scenario 2.  Bulls get shaken out to empty the bus for a sharp ramp higher.
 scenario 3.  one more day of chop and continuation of the move

May 15 - Closed out IWM puts for +120% and picked up DAL and HD Jun calls

I'm going to let the market do its thing this week and probably stay away from new positions until Friday unless something very good pop...