Monday, June 26, 2017

Jun 26 - Failed breakout in FANG or just noise?

I got lucky and sold within the first 30 of the open with my AAPL calls which got me a double.  I was expecting to jump back in upon seeing consolidation but they just rolled over.

I ended up taking a modest position in AMZN/ FB July puts near the close that might take a week to work if they do.  I was expecting a breakout today based on the strong first hour but it burned off fast.
This is just anecdotal but investors seem really confident that this recent dip in big tech will bounce fast.  I think it's 50/50 that it is since the last dip was pretty large and the negative divergences popping up.

Also re-added XME Sept 33 calls and added X Sept calls on weakness.  I am going to have a huge XME/ X position within 1-2 weeks maybe earlier.

Put/ call ratio is very low which isn't always an actionable indicator to go short but has had reasonable success lately in next day drops..around 70-75%.  Investors are very complacent now.

The CPC ratio has marked next day weakness the majority of the time.  I was surprised to see the ratio so low after seeing the market dump hard in the afternoon.

 Daily negative divergence on FB.  Will it realize?
 AMZN looks like it could hit the yellow zone but could also keep going higher.

XME could drop back to support but I got trigger happy and got the Sept 33 calls.  Looking to add 31 calls soon to make my overall position more conservative.
 X could make a huge move to 32+ soon
 AAPL looked like it would break out but fizzled out hard
 FB fizzling, no breakout to ATH
 AMZN also fizzling
 GOOG failed breakout
 NFLX looks the best here
 SNAP I might look to take a small position EOW if volume drops and price slows down

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May 15 - Closed out IWM puts for +120% and picked up DAL and HD Jun calls

I'm going to let the market do its thing this week and probably stay away from new positions until Friday unless something very good pop...