Sunday, July 30, 2017

July 30 - Long URA, DDD, DAL, NTES, MOMO, GBT, CMCM and short GLD

Entered a handful of longs with the proceeds from XME, X, FCX longs.  Friday might have been a decent day to reenter long but I am holding off as there might be more downside.

I am extremely bullish URA, DDD, DAL for next few weeks.

I am also highly leaning towards a market correction of 3-5% in the next 2 mo.  Feel like the probability is 80%+.  A lot of complacency right now with put/call ratios staying in very low ranges.

My goal is to raise cash the next few weeks and hopefully avoid the downturn.

Biggest position is URA long.  It looks almost too good to be true


GLD short and as usual I am very uneasy.  Have been a few days early on a few of these trades.
My proxy GDX looks like it is at resistance.  If GDX breaks up, I will fold this trade.
 GDX right there and will break up or down soon.
 This is a big reason why I like the GLD short.  USD is due to bounce this week.

Big position in DDD now and earnings is Tues.
 Picked up an array of DAL calls and expecting a 2-3 bounce in next few weeks.
mid sized position in NTES, also will be affected by earnings.  Aug 9.
 much smaller position in GBT, earnings Aug 9





Thursday, July 27, 2017

July 27 - Sold FCX yesterday and entered GLD short today

GDX is signalling another move down in GLD but longer term it is setting up for a big move up this fall.  Will enter long GLD/ GDX on a retest of the lower zone if we get there.

FCX I sold yesterday after seeing the weakness in steel names.  Still looking to re-enter but want to see things play out.

Also entered longs in DDD, NTES, URA, GBT w the proceeds of the oversized XME calls.



Wednesday, July 26, 2017

July 26 - Sold X, XME calls

Still bullish intermediate term but I sold X Sept calls for a double and XME also for a double.  Holding FCX Sept calls (now up 275%) as copper is ripping and has no correlation really to the Trump risk that is part of steel.  Will probably enter NTES calls today as China as a whole is moving really well.  I should've been in some of these names earlier.

I still like FCX and have a target of 17-18

Sold X calls when X was up around 10% this morning

Still have a target of 35-38 on XME but want to see how this weakness in steel is playing out.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

July 11 - Metals flying, closed QQQ long

My XME (70%), FCX, GDX, X longs moved well today and XME may be ready to break out.  I've been teased so many times I am gather my expectations.

Pretty amazing how out of synch the indices are with each other.  I was originally thinking some July swoon but it might just chop around for a while.  I mean it could chop for the whole summer.  Unless playing short time frames I don't see much of an edge in SPY/ QQQ.

QQQ got close enough to the target so I closed it out

If this damn thing could break through resistance then could be clear skies until 35





 This could chop for months like last year.

Monday, July 10, 2017

July 10 - Tech bouncing and back on metals bandwagon, long XME, FCX, X, GDX

Flipped back to my previous big position in metals with the early morning strength.  FCX looks like a strong breakout and steel looks ready to pop.

QQQ making a nice move and looking to sell at gap fill around 140.


 FCX making a big move today.  If it sticks this might turn into a runner.
 GDX at support
 X making a rounded bottom
 XME still below lots of congestion.  If it closes above 31 it could move to 35 quickly.


Sunday, July 9, 2017

July 9 - Long small QQQ, still short XME

Closed SPY short on open Friday for a small gain and flipped to long QQQ later in the day.  Not the best entry but the positive divergence should give it a bump early this week.  With equities, until that 3-5% SPY correction happens (we might need to wait until Sept/ Oct for it), I am going to be a lot quicker to pull profits when I see them.

The gonzo metals/ commodities trade I am still eyeing but XME seemed to be struggling so wait and see here with a small short.  If it clears resistance I will hop back on.



False breakdown but this chop is pretty ugly.

Thursday, July 6, 2017

July 6 - switched to short SPY/ XME yesterday

I reversed my aggressive bullish position in XME/ FCX after seeing the market stall a bit and seeing no volume confirmation on the breakout from the wedge.

Sold everything Weds on open and put on SPY/ XME short at close.






Aug 25 - Re-entered (again) GLD short, long LVS, AMZN, NFLX, SHAK

I have been stopped out twice in last few weeks trying to short GLD.  I have a pretty sizeable position of Nov/ Dec GLD/ GDX puts. Also ha...