Thursday, August 3, 2017

Aug 3 - Cut GLD short, more chop in the indexes

Biggest position now in DAL which I added more to today.  Earnings torpedoed the DDD position and exited URA yesterday after seeing it not breakout and GLD short today (still waiting on this, the yen just won't stop barreling up and it needs to slow down for the GLD trade to work).

Still have small GBT, NTES

I got excited yesterday when GLD poked through the trendline which has been a pretty good indicator of trend change the past several months.  Today it did probably the worst possible thing...nothing.  An ideal top would be a big gap up then a fade or some sort of volatility.
Right now the possible is happening which is making this a risky short.  It looked much better yesterday.

A potential pain trade scenario would be for miners to break out a few days, engaged a lot of longs + cause a stop run on shorts and THEN reverse hard back down.  That would crush a lot of participants.

Longer time frame you can see it speed of the decline isn't there.  Could drop like a rock but odds increased today that this continues to go up.
 Same thing with silver.  It could easy take another leg up.
 GDX also isn't falling hard.  Some minor underperformance relative to gold but not enough to be actionable.
 Maybe GLD hits 123 then reverses?  Will be in wait and see mode
 SLV at resistance but could easy poke a bit through before reversing.
 UUP is due for a violent spike up.  It is coming soon.  Within a few days to a couple weeks I'd say.  At that point, GLD will probably reverse.
 I think a bear trap where we break support and reverse higher is a very possible scenario if we don't bounce here
 Entered modest X long.  Very good risk to reward
 Exited URA yesterday.  Didn't like how it didn';t break out when it was all set up to do so.
 SPY just churning.  Nothing bad or good here.  Just chop.
 My biggest position is DAL now.  At minimum looking for 52 in next 1-2 weeks.

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