Monday, January 30, 2017

Sunday, January 29, 2017

Jan 29 - Eyeing SPY short through end of Feb and re-entering XBI long

Eyeing a hedge of a SPY/ IWM short through end of Feb when we historically get some weakness.  From a seasonality and sentiment standpoint, feels like the market needs to rest a bit.

Per Almanac Trader, we see an early Feb peak typically then some movement downwards on average of 3% until the end of Feb.  This chart dovetails pretty well into the inflated bullish sentiment right now.  Long term I am still bullish but getting the sense retail investors are starting to feel more comfortable which is a warning sign.

Per Callum Thomas, there is a moderate negative divergence between price and sentiment.  This isn't an actionable signal in itself but a warning to be on the lookout for a sell off.

 VIX spread is very large and more pronounced than the sentiment/ SPX price poll
We have negative divergence in RSI but this can go on for a while

 IWM at the top of its range.
 JWN I ended up selling at breakeven on Thurs but still eyeing this one as a long
 Same w M
 NTNX also sold on Thurs and would like it to stall out a bit before thinking about going long again.  Twice it failed to break out cleanly so I am a bit wary of this one.
 XBI looks good and I may hop back on this one tomorrow but again a bit wary of the overall indexes being so overbought but QQQ is still holding strong.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Jan 26 - Sold most longs, short IWM

I could be overreacting here but I was looking over some things last night and I am getting a little spooked about bullishness levels - general sentiment, overbought indicators, and low put/call ratios.  I sold almost all my longs including a couple things I was really bullish on up to yesterday - NTNX, XBI

I just took a small IWM short and looking to get some SPY put spreads for mid Feb expiry

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Jan 25 - NTNX, XBI moving

I am happy that most of my positions are moving in the right direction.  Looking back I botched the China trade and should have held.  I sold VFC as it wasn't moving enough and sold 1/2 of JWN so I only have Apr DITM calls.

Sold too early but too late to chase

Maybe there will be another chance to jump in here

GLD finally moving in the right direction...down.  I am almost at breakeven here
 If NTNX does what it could and hit 40, I will have some monster 5 figure profits.

Settling nicely here but may dip back into the wedge

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Jan 24 - Sold BABA, BIDU and adding XBI tomorrow

not sure I might be early here but sold BABA, BIDU on the pop on the open.  SOHU is making a multi month breakout here so not totally sure of the direction.

XBI once again looks like an interesting entry

The big move I was looking for before might happen now.

Monday, January 23, 2017

Jan 23 - Re-added NTNX

Not much changes today and the indexes look to chop for a bit.   My guess is that Feb will be more chop with maybe a dip to scare some longs but who knows.

Swing positions in order of holdings:  BABA, BIDU, JWN, GLD short, NTNX, M, GRMN, VFC
Longer term positions: Mar VXX puts from Nov, CMG, REGN

China setups looks great.  BABA earnings tomorrow before the bell and if the market reaction is good, 108 is possible.
BIDU looks great as well 

My GLD short is a big loser right now and it needs to getting moving in the next 1-2 days or I will get stopped out
 If it clears this level it could easily go up another couple points to another potential resistance level.
 GRMN still consolidating
 JWN I really like in addition to M
 M poised for a bounce
 NTNX failed to breakout the last time around and moving up from the middle of the zone which is promising
 A very speculative read on the USD.  It might just tank also back into consolidation. I don't have a lot of conviction that it will bounce.

VFC set up is decent but not great.

Thursday, January 19, 2017

Jan 19 - Re-added BABA, BIDU

Looking for the next leg up in BABA, BIDU.  I'm very bullish on these two
Added JWN way too early yesterday and seeing a lot of red on that position.  Also added TWLO earlier this week and only looking for a quick pop
Also have old Mar VXX puts and CMG, REGN as long term positions

Looking for 106 here in BABA

Looking for 195 in BIDU

Monday, January 9, 2017

Jan 9 - Sold 2/3 China, still holding XBI, NTNX, VXX puts, and long term position of CMG

Decided to play it safe and pull some really nice profits off the table.  I had an array of Feb/ Mar calls on China stocks and made an average of 100% on them.  My targets haven't been reached but seems so overbought on a short term frame I'm thinking at least 50% chance we pull back or chop here then back up.  If we get a sharp dip, I will be an aggressive buyer.

SPY looks like it's gonna dip or chop w negative divergence.  I don't have much interest here.

VIX at bottom of range

XBI made a great move.  Let's see if things continue

BABA not at the target but the 2 hr frame looks really cooked
 If we pull back in BABA to yellow zone, I will buy buy buy

BIDU if it hits the zone, more buying by me
 CTRP which I have a small position which has been untouched.  The chart of the 4 I had looks the best.
 CTRP still a bit aways from the target
 SOHU also very overbought but could go much higher this leg but I'm looking for a pullback
 Close to target but not quite there.  I'm betting that it needs a pullback to launch higher after the 3rd consecutive close north of the upper BB

Jan 9 - long NTNX still holding china + biotech

Added Feb 17 30 NTNX calls @ 1.6.  A bit late but we'll see.  Still holding a lot of China and some biotech via XBI

Saturday, January 7, 2017

Jan 7 - 2016's trade of the year still crushing it for 50%+

My 2016 trade idea of the year is still crushing it.  I think sometime around Trump's inauguration/ next 1-2 weeks will be the time to pull some of it off the table.

The original post is here.  I bought a big batch of Mar VXX 55 puts @ 21.75 on Nov 4

Now those same puts @33 for over 50% gain

Wednesday, January 4, 2017

Jan 4 - Potential breakout in China names and biotech

Long w BIDU, BABA, CTRP, SOHU, and XBI from late last week and longer term position of VXX JAn/ Mar puts.  So far so good.  This breakout might not stick for everything but it is promising so far.

May 15 - Closed out IWM puts for +120% and picked up DAL and HD Jun calls

I'm going to let the market do its thing this week and probably stay away from new positions until Friday unless something very good pop...