Thursday, March 30, 2017

Mar 30 - Added energy names in CHK, MRO, APA July calls

Caught a small pullback.  Not the best entry but I have a multi mo horizon.  SNAP continues to bleed and it probably needs today/ tomorrow to settle.  Also needs to give bulls like me more heartburn before it can go potentially up.

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Mar 29 - Energy + SNAP

Lots of good names out there ready to make huge moves.  I unfortunately missed adding to my current energy holdings and will want to add mid summer ATM calls.

some ideas....

target -mid strike price return
APA July ATM calls 62 52.5 3.65 2.60
MRO July ATM calls 20 16 1.27 3.15
COG July ATM calls 28 25 1.9 1.58
HES Jun ATM calls 60 50 2.7 3.70
DVN July ATM calls 50 41 3.1 2.90

SNAP put a scare and I got stopped out of 1/2 of my position on the open but I re-added some after it stabilized.  My stop was too tight but it happens.  Looking to add more tomorrow.

Saturday, March 25, 2017

Mar 25 - the Cecil Fielder account starting to heat up

After getting whacked for 75% loss last year in the Cecil Fielder account, I reloaded the account which is small, high risk account that trades mainly options and after a middling February, things are starting to get moving.  I've tripled it in the first 3 mo of this year.

Some not unexpected things:

-I am still way way over my targeted average trade per month.  Right now I am at about 35/ mo which is an improvement from last year but I want to get down to about 20-25/mo.
-Making too many errors.  15 of the 100 trades these last 3 months are errors or just badly configured trades.  I need to drop that to maybe 5 errors and hopefully eradicate them entirely
-Countertrend trades are not working.  We are in a crazy bull market.  Should I be surprised?  No.  Time to cut back on these.  They aren't worth it.
-Win rate is in the low 50%'s.  If I pull my errors it gets into the 60% range.  If I tighten up my entries more it gets to 65%.
-avg win is +690 and avg loss is -302

So going forward 65% win rate, 5 errors per 100 trades, and 20-25 trades/ mo

Some surprising things:
-TWLO I knew was causing me pain but it is by far my biggest loser.  It is like sewage in the system.  
-my top five winners are 

SNAP +12,502 (this has potential to turn into a trade of the year candidate)
BABA +7,138
LVS +5,882
YY +4,940
LN +3,760

I did not think BABA would be so high

The biggest losers
TWLO -5,986
SPY -2,872
AMZN -1,896
IBB -1,410
QCOM -1,108

In general my SPY/ QQQ/ IWM trades have not gone well but a lot worse than I thought.

Despite too many errors, I am pleased with the equity curve so far

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Mar 22 - SNAP

Apologies for the lack of posting, have been very busy lately and will try and keep up.  I entered an array of Apr/ May/ July SNAP calls on Thurs/ Fri/ Mon.  There is potential for a 10 bagger here.

All other positions are the same except I let go of SOHU and added BIDU today.

Current holdings in order of size, SNAP, LVS, BIDU, ACIA, TWLO, APA, XOM, FCX.  Still looking to add more energy names soon.  I also want to sell down the IPO names, it is adding major risk to the portfolio.

SNAP sentiment super bearish.  the MM's might jam this one up in the next month.
ACIA finally moving.  Looking for exit tomorrow.  Calls up 200% now.  TWLO while still a decent setup is dragging.

 added to BIDU today and this is the line in the sand.
 LVS pullback looks healthy so far.  I like the fact this up move has been steady and not explosive which would be more sustainable.

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Mar 14 - Added energy names

Starting w 2 long term entries in APA, XOM Jun/ July ITM calls and 2 short term entries via USO, XLE calls expiring this week.  I'm not totally convinced this is the bottom in oil/ energy so still have 1/2 more allocated to buy energy.

Sold YY after a really nice boost yesterday at 7+% and took the proceeds to buy today's energy names.

I love the setup here.  If it fails hard it will be obvious to get out.  Good risk to reward.

APA looks great here

BIDU a bit frustrating as a lot of China names have blasted off.  Interestingly BABA is struggling also.  I have Jun 180 calls from a week ago and theta burn is starting to take effect.

Not in this one yet but eyeing it
 TWLO I re-entered smaller yesterday
 Sold YY yesterday on the spike
 LVS still cooking.  BIDU/ LVS are my largest positions by far then collectively energy

Thursday, March 9, 2017

Mar 9 - Setting up for a bullish move in the indexes

Not much change in the past few days except I got stopped out of a FCX long and added QQQ 132 Mar 17 calls and AMZN Mar 17 calls yesterday.

In order of size, have BIDU, LVS, YY, QQQ, TWLO, YRD, SOHU, AMZN.  I dropped the retail thesis for now in JWN as I think there might be better candidates.

CPC pointing towards bullish day tomorrow

FCX had a great setup but failed.  Might not be a bad time to enter now but watching for now.

Dropped below the support zone I was eyeing so stepped aside.

QQQ's looks coiled for a breakout to 133
 YRD had a tough day and coughed the big gains I had from last week's entry.  I am still holding and looking for 40
 TWLO is my least favorite holding. It looks like it is basing but is very unpredictable
 SOHU still waiting on breakout
 LVS still consolidating.

Monday, March 6, 2017

Mar 6 - Added FCX, SOHU, YY and YRD

Now in the Cecil Fielder (high leverage, short term account) I picked up big position of YY and some FCX, SOHU, and YRD calls expiring in Mar/ April.  Still have a big position of May/ Jun LVS calls and another big position of BIDU Jun calls and some TWLO Apr calls.

Lots of select China names look ready to break out big in the next 1-3 mo.

Still eyeing entry into GLD/ GDX short and XLE/ XBI longs.

BIDU consolidating nicely

FCX looks prime for a bounce
 LVS although we got a dip seems to be moving back up
 SOHU is the most speculative position I have other than TWLO as it could easily fail but the upside is great
 TWLO continuing to churn and I entered this one too early.  Friday was the day.
 YRD might break out

After BIDU, YY is my biggest China position.Looking for at minimum 50 as a target

Sunday, March 5, 2017

Mar 5 - Still looking for XLE/ XBI long entry

I am liking the set up for XLE a lot now and XBI I am hoping for some settling so I can board the train.   Maybe within 1-2 weeks?

Missed this one but still eyeing blue zone

XLE looks great

Mar 5 - Closed GLD short temporarily, looking to re-short soon

Didn't make any changes Fri except close the GLD short as the miners + silver started showing strength and an oversold signal on the 2 hr frame.  Either we bounce or a big gap down is coming.  I am hoping for a small bounce that I can re-enter the previous GLD puts.

May 15 - Closed out IWM puts for +120% and picked up DAL and HD Jun calls

I'm going to let the market do its thing this week and probably stay away from new positions until Friday unless something very good pop...