THE GREENLANDER REPORT

potential SPY/ IWM short term long

2010-08-17T02:17:00.000-07:00

Potential XLF squeeze

2010-02-12T12:47:00.000-08:00

Im encouraged by the buying happening after the steep morning drop and then general churn happening over last week without the bottom falling out.
I think there is a good chance of a pop next week
its also OPEX

as of 330pm
but we are printing a hollow reversal candle
selling volume not super heavy on the ETF's
VIX and SPY are also both down

green vertical lines indicate other reversal candles on low vol.

XLE long

2009-12-10T11:54:00.000-08:00

Stochs and CCI coming out of oversold territory.
Looking for low 40's in ERX.

Potential POT long

2009-10-02T18:38:00.000-07:00

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=POT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p08385777747&listNum=1&a=179793933

Going long into next week w POT. This is a good submerged beach ball candidate.

A step back looking at 3 yr TRAN chart - possibility of a major pullback

2009-09-30T00:05:00.000-07:00

There is a lot of resistance and we have had a couple big distribution days the last 2 weeks in the TRAN. Will be much more cautious on the long side and potentially look at going short going into earnings.

NYMO

2009-09-29T23:37:00.000-07:00

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p21518564376&listNum=1&a=154418448

The McClellan oscillator is turning up again but CCI has not bottomed, which leaves a mildly bullish outlook. however, volume has been very weak the last 2 days, making the possibility of another move down possible.

Potential JJC long entry - 6 mo chart

2009-09-20T13:51:00.001-07:00

The volume signals are terrible so I wouldn't rely on them.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JJC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p63999621498&listNum=1&a=165055361

Potential JJC long entry - 1yr 6 mo chart

2009-09-20T13:46:00.000-07:00

JNJ long entry

2009-09-20T13:44:00.001-07:00

Consolidating tightly, volume ticking up. If it dips to 59-60 range I will be buying aggressively, if not I probably will still be accumulating and definitely starting a position on a solid volume breakout.

AIG daytrade

2009-09-10T08:30:00.000-07:00

My apologies for the terrible image, but I just separated my swing trading and day trading by getting a proper account for daytrading and thought I would post a modified screen shot.

The image is a 1 min chart of today's triple move up in AIG. After consolidating nicely it makes a great move at 10:37 and 10:51 w solid volume. I always try never to step onto quickly moving trains and wait for them to slow down. This allows one to set a very obvious stop if things turn the wrong way.

I am always on the lookout for new daytrading vehicles that set up well so if you know of any, please let me know...

Potential $TRAN short

2009-07-20T22:51:00.001-07:00

This one looks v clean. Stop would be very obvious so this would be an easy fold if things didnt bounce down off resistance and blasted through the upper trendline.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN& ... =162114236

Possible H + S pattern

2009-07-15T12:34:00.000-07:00

We still got a H + S pattern albeit a very unusual one. For lack of a better word, a 'bowtie'.
We are potentially mirroring the move up, just in reverse with a broadening wedge pattern. Whereas the activity from May was a tightening wedge and the head being the failed breakout pattern.

Although the levels are all over the place, conceptually this is a pretty complete pattern. IWM, SPY, DIA, and even QQQQ to a certain extent exhibiting bowties.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p94941011682&listNum=1&a=159663290

Potential move to 920-925 in SP500

2009-07-14T17:58:00.001-07:00

That would form a second right shoulder and provide more symmetry to the whole pattern which was lacking before. At that point, the 5,3,3 stochs should be maxed out on the daily making things moderately overbought in the intermediate term.

Potential USO bounce

2009-07-10T13:35:00.000-07:00

CCI, stochs, RSI oversold similar to previous bounce conditions.
Also sitting on trendline.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p15103654589&listNum=1&a=164600399

Potential SPY bounce

2009-07-10T13:32:00.000-07:00

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69413244073&listNum=1&a=157842638

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p01615064998&listNum=1&a=166182560

Looking for a small low volume bounce early next week. But only 2-3 pts max.

VIX 60 min chart

2009-07-06T14:45:00.000-07:00

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p01872450984&listNum=1&a=140941991

Red lines correspond to the VIX reversal set up.
VIX moved down out of overbought territory on RSI, CCI, and 5,3,3 stochs.
MACD is extremely high.
It is still well embedded in 12,3,3 stoch are so VIX will have some room to move down
if it decides to.

Today may have been a short term bear trap. We will see tomorrow...

Potential VIX reversal

2009-07-06T13:46:00.000-07:00

VIX printed a black exhaustion canlde today. Breadth was mixed and volume not entirely strong and the close while not great, looked promising.

On the indexes lots of reversal candles.

Looking for SPY to get to the upper end of its consolidation range at around 92-93 and assessing whether to go short.

Right now sitting on modest long position for short term. If we get a large pop tomorrow, will definitely unload a large portion if not all of it. If we gap down again, this set up will probably have failed but the odds of a third gap down in a row seem more limited as the market held some ground today.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p73247900273&listNum=1&a=143752913

Potential up move in XLE

2009-06-21T14:35:00.000-07:00

Daily and 60 min stochs on both 5,3,3 and 12,3,3 settings
Oversold. Stoch cross on the 5,3, 3 setting on daily for XLE
Lots of bears might be sitting in a boat that could be too crowded
Based on the staggered selloff recently.

Other indexes exhbiting stoch cross on daily.

Potential SPY breakout

2009-06-10T21:48:00.001-07:00

Still waiting for a breakout, but does look like consolidation for the next move up to the high 90's in SPY. If things really push hard, 100 is not entirely out of the question.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p01615064998&listNum=1&a=166182560

Potential XLF breakout

2009-06-01T00:00:00.000-07:00

Despite some distribution 1-2 weeks ago, again it is surprisingly looking very possible we see another big move up in financials. Many of the index ETF's, DIA, SPY, IWM have been consolidating in a very suspicious manner.

But XLF looks very much like the last few breakouts. WFC and BAC of the bunch are especially primed. More so WFC.

Since Thursday, have been sitting on FAS.

$CPC 1 yr 6 mo chart

2009-05-21T09:29:00.000-07:00

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p26432373222&listNum=1&a=154880176

A small spike in put buying ratio that has broken trendline from last year. Will be notable if the puts become more popular in near/ intermediate term.

Potential STT short

2009-05-19T13:57:00.001-07:00

Was the leading in money outflows in WSJ selling on strength today. Strong MACD neg divergence and very big selling volume at close. Keep in mind that like most of the posts, this is a short term potential play.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=STT&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p32166974202&listNum=1&a=168476182

$NASI - Nasdaq summation sell signal

2009-05-12T17:58:00.000-07:00

The fast line printed a red line today. This indicator tends to lag at least a few days but is fairly reliable of marking an intermediate trend. What it doesn't do too well is give one an idea of how long or fast a trend will go so it is something I use just as reference.

When the lines cross, that produces the second level of confirmation.

That having been said, I did close out my RIMM puts and sell my TWM on the large move today. Will look to reload at a better price but does appear a correction of at least a few weeks is on its way.

Financials and energy also look to be correcting/ consolidating for the intermediate term soon.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NASI&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61059559173&listNum=1&a=161901460

SPY continuation diamond pattern

2009-04-28T19:21:00.001-07:00

There is something a bit fishy about this latest 3 day downturn. It seems v forced. Repeated gap downs but no follow through.
Not unlike the series from apr 3-8. A slow ugly grind down but without forceful volume or direction.

Currently price is approaching the right tip of diamond pattern.

Potential XLE breakout

2009-04-28T19:11:00.001-07:00

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLE&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p07755499497&listNum=1&a=158652097

Diminishing volume and CMF is increasing while price stays sideways. It looks like accumulation.

thurs apr 30. Failed breakout today. Instead gapped up and reversed mid day on solid volume. Very well could have been a fakeout and the pattern may fail

VIX

2009-04-27T01:14:00.000-07:00

While VIX is undoubtedly less useful than it was a year ago, the region it is now on the weekly and daily merit attention. Strong positive divergence over last few months on the daily.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94703696272&listNum=1&a=145229833

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p81979425765&listNum=1&a=144123818

WFC - Broadening wedge

2009-04-26T16:02:00.000-07:00

Or you could call it a triangle....Either way if you were bullish, would be preferable to see action tightening up and vol dropping rather than the reverse.

Volume and range is increasing. Looks more likely than not WFC could see a correction early this week.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WFC&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p11729884472&listNum=1&a=166246896

Potential short term USD rebound

2009-04-23T20:53:00.001-07:00

Will be interesting to see if equities continue their inverse relationship with the dollar if and when the dollar rebounds within the near future. If UUP breaks this trendline, we could see another move up in equities.

Potential SPY short re-entry

2009-04-20T22:12:00.000-07:00

A bounce that retraces 38-50% to the 85-85.5 area which also coincides with the gap resistance would be ideal. Also possible it even bounces to 86 range.

I closed short positions as the 60 min stochs/ CCI/ ChiOsc were extremely oversold. Note what has happened previously on other low readings on the ChiOsc.

Depending on how things look tomorrow and how easily the market can potentially bounce, I will gauge another short entry.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p95735482697&listNum=1&a=165284001

Potential SPY correction - take 2

2009-04-17T15:17:00.000-07:00

If you have stockcharts, click title for updated chart.

Going up today (which I really did not expect), instead of going down actually seemed bearish.

Nasdaq not dead yet

2009-04-16T23:42:00.000-07:00

Still in an upchannel/ wedge/ whatever you want to call it as it broke a key level of resistance. A level more than few bears expected to hold. It did on the first push up but broke today on solid volume. Volume is still consistent so very easily could be a channel.

On a general note, there are way too many people thinking we are at a top. I can't remember a time when we have topped without people, including myself, being surprised at one last up move in the markets before an intermediate term correction began.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p14354180731&listNum=1&a=154927098

Another potential move up in financials?

2009-04-16T23:29:00.000-07:00

I am not ready to jump on the bear wagon yet. Right when the mixed breadth starts to look like it will turn negative, another sector comes up a picks up the slack. Financials took a breather today but transports/ utilities were strong. In general, there is too much solid volume to be aggressively short here, and actually if XLF hits the lower trendline on non-threatening volume, for a high-risk, but high-reward play, there might be another breakout coming to the 12-12.5 region in XLF.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p73134628116&listNum=1&a=140246633

Maybe a lil bit left of upside in SPY?

2009-04-15T01:25:00.000-07:00

Not saying this with huge confidence, but perhaps a bit more upside in SPY, really only 1 or 1.5 days more then a breakdown out of this wedge or at least to the lower part of this potential upwrad channel. Also possible we fall right away, but I wasn't entirely convinced it was pushing down v hard today. Mixed breadth today, transports and energy didn't sell off too hard.
Note the angle of some of the indicators...more of a gentle drift down if you look as the last 3 days as a whole...despite the strong downward bent of today.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p17612435061&listNum=1&a=165284001

thurs 635 am PST: Sold all longs, SPY calls and TNA in premarket and open.
Will maybe look for a short entry tomorrow.

Potential correction in techs

2009-04-13T15:30:00.001-07:00

Not looking for a big breakdown (though a solid retrace is possible), am looking for a retrace to 1600 to previous break out level.

Unless something drastic happens...i.e. the move falling out of its channel, the choppy upward movement will probably last for at least another few weeks. If not, there is reasonable potential for up to a 50% retrace.

s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p14354180731&listNum=1&a=154927098

Potential SPY correction

2009-04-13T09:52:00.000-07:00

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p51695234156&listNum=1&a=162575506

Need to be careful here as financials are reporting but there are definitely signs of minor exhaustion. Weakening volume (although some of that is perhaps due to the increasing popularity of other ETF's this past week like the SKF/ UYG/ XLF/ FAS/ FAZ) and consistent MACD divergence. Also as it is OPEX week there could be ample false moves.

Whether this is an upward channel or wedge, who knows, but seems like a pullback this week or latest next week is in order.

tues 1100am PST: Sold my SPY puts, could be wrong in being early, but going to be careful w OPEX week thrashiness. I might enter a smaller position later inthe week

Massive BAC/ financials breakout

2009-04-09T17:50:00.000-07:00

I have been eyeing this potential breakout for weeks. Right when I was almost giving up on this consolidation pattern breaking out, it exploded. I was waiting for $BKX and $DJUSFN to test the bottom end of its trendline to pick up some calls. I just watched this massive move up in price/ volume today on the sidelines...dumbfounded.

It never got to the bottom trendline. Got too fancy for my own good....bleh

$BKX daily chart - no breakout yet

2009-04-02T18:18:00.001-07:00

Still havent broken out.
$BKX printed a noncomittal candle and it also did not go up too much considering how much the indexes went up. Not super encouraging.

Now the question is we see a breakout. Based on its current zone, it needs to break out tomorrow or it will drop deeper into the box.

Given that there are black exhaustion candles in XLF, UYG, etc. it might be a tall order.

On indexes, v good volume but signs of exhaustion towards the close so breadth wise, positive but the level of strength varies across the board. IYT for example had a v big day today.

IYT daily chart - Don't fall in love with the downside

2009-04-01T22:34:00.000-07:00

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IYT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p04174776016&listNum=1&a=163571032

IYT amongst many other ETF's isn't rolling over like it normally does. And it is accompanied by some extremely large volume.

Potential v large move up in financials

2009-04-01T13:23:00.001-07:00

This looks like a great set up to me going long.BAC could potentially hit 12 if it breaks w volume.Note the consistently downtrending volume past 2 wks.
If it was still going up and vol was dying I would be v bearish.But instead it is giving up marginal ground on dying volume.
It could always fail but it looks like a good setup. $BKX looks promising also as a potential inverse head and shoulders. But the key thing is some excuse for the institutional players to buy. No M2M repeal, temporary or otherwise and back to the drawing board.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BKX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p30656580692&listNum=1&a=148375763

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p37839704279&a=140282018&listNum=1

Potential XLE bearish reversal

2009-03-19T19:43:00.001-07:00

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLE&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p97101956353&listNum=1&a=158652097

I will concede that while the candles here look bearish, the reversal candles on SPY, QQQQ look much less convincing. Tomorrow could be a wash because of OPEX day. So perhaps not ideal to put much merit in what happens tomorrow. I would want to see Monday before coming to strong conclusions unless we tank hard (somewhat unlikely) tomorrow.

$NYMO daily 1 yr chart

2009-03-19T19:35:00.001-07:00

Looking for something similar to scenario 1 as back in July 2008 to play out.
There is maybe a 20% chance (similar to scenario 2) of a new low within the next month but it would require a move down with bigger volume and much stronger in breadth to negate the very strong move up.

$CPC points to reversal - version 2.0

2009-03-18T18:52:00.001-07:00

Lots of resistance at 800 SPX and trendline for CPC moving average.
Leaning towards a pullback not a gigantic move down.

$NYMO oscillator second highest in 3 years.

Either way, the market is in that strange off the charts territory. Time to see if the sell off I thought was going to happen 3 days ago materializes with any volume.

$CPC points towards reversal

2009-03-15T13:40:00.000-07:00

$CPCE/ $NYMO also point towards reversal

2009-03-14T17:27:00.000-07:00

$CPCE, $BPFINA and looks like a 50-66% retrace of the move off of the bottom looks very possible. If volume is so so I will cover at least half when we hit that 50% point which is around 715 ish in $SPX

http://tinyurl.com/bmmvsx

[IMG]http://i720.photobucket.com/albums/ww210/greenlander1/cpce-1.png[/IMG]

http://tinyurl.com/ctv5ef

[IMG]http://i720.photobucket.com/albums/ww210/greenlander1/nymo.png[/IMG]

Potential QQQQ reversal

2009-03-14T16:23:00.000-07:00

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p48936900623&listNum=1&a=154927098

Potential SPY reversal

2009-03-14T02:42:00.000-07:00

Financials finally showed signs of exhaustion.
Possible gap down and follow through on Monday/ Tuesday.
Question will be the amount of selling so I will wait to gauge the intensity of volume to decide whether to unload shorts or add on to them.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p42366923612&listNum=1&a=160171932

$CPC Call to put ratio very high

2009-03-08T23:36:00.000-07:00

If we dip again into that yellow zone, I am going to go in deep short if the rest of my indicators look good. That trendline is gonna snap sooner or later.
http://tinyurl.com/calvw8

Like many, I am puzzled. Daneric has some possible explanations. I am in Option 1, but fearful of Option 2, which would also make for worse trading as it is scary to be short at these levels and kill my Mar SKF puts.
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.co ... arket.html

Whats puzzling is the VIX and put/call ratio have remained somewhat "ambivalent" at best since the SPX was sliding at around 780 SPX. The VIX has always spiked higher on Minor Wave 3's as compared to wave 1's. Also the CPC has always gotten put heavy consistently near the bottoms. But since near the low of wave 1(5) in January this has started to diverge. Are traders getting smarter? Hard to say that since the market keeps dropping and they keep betting rally.

In fact, the entire bear market, significant lows at many degrees the VIX and CPC have always spiked near or at the bottom together to combine for near term lows in each respective indicator.

So in conclusion I can only come up with a few logical answers:

1. Traders figure the bottom HAS to be near. Possible outcome: They prove to be correct and everyone makes big money (Is that even possible?)

2. Traders are in for a big surprise if/when the market just keeps dropping through the 600's possible high 500's. Outcome: They keep losing big. Eventually they get doubtful and fearful again in the right doses.

3. Traders have started to pay attention to Elliott Wave Theory. Possible Outcome: The waves will just keep stretching lower until Traders get "stupid" again.

Its scary. I think everyone would prefer a capitulation move. This slow bleed has me worried. The market is always right.

Potential rally in financials

2009-03-08T18:08:00.001-07:00

Key will be the amount of market excitement in M2M meeting Mar 12 as financials are extremely oversold. Question is what happens at the resistance zone of around 135-150 in $DJUSFN indicated if the market can take it there.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJUSFN&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p53690176963&listNum=1&a=160540332

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJUSFN&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p35490289214&listNum=1&a=158916681

Financials ready to roll over

2009-02-26T18:59:00.000-08:00

$BKX overbought on both daily and 60 min timeframes. SKF could go very far beyond 200.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BKX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p56495137819&listNum=1&a=146285267

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BKX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p97183810240&listNum=1&a=157690460

GLD short

2009-02-24T18:07:00.000-08:00

Yeh I know I'm a day late here but was eyeing this for some time
and didnt have a chance to post.

There is definitely some meat left on this one as a short.

Potential SPY reversal of reversal

2009-02-22T19:24:00.000-08:00

Perhaps getting ahead of myself as we havent confirmed the bounce but I prefer to always keep an eye looking ahead. Lots of resistance above but daily and 60 min stochs are extremely oversold along w the 2 beat down sectors, financials, energy. V possible that SPY retraces 1/3 to 2/3 of the previous move down to 80-83. Then setting up for the final move down and possibly nationalization of the larger financial institutions.

Potential SPY reversal

2009-02-19T21:45:00.000-08:00

Tomorrow, less likely Monday, could be a sharp reversal day. MM's send the market to 75 area at open. Push it down further to 72 area then let go of the spring. Could cause a massive short squeeze.

Other reasons are volume and the pace of the downturn have been unimpressive, strangely methodical. It looks like a set up.

Artificial asset floor is impossible

2009-02-15T12:25:00.000-08:00

Lots of bad ideas coming out of the government right now.

And most revolve around the idea of 'slowing down pace' of foreclosures, asset depreciation, etc. But there are multiple problems with this scenario.

1. The market economy is too big for this experiment to work. Real estate assets and all their related securities and debt are too intertwined and engaged on too large of a scale for the government to handle.
2. They are forgetting that creating a floor does not equal demand. Demand is what will drive future appreciation.
3. Artificial floor could create confusion on where the bottom is. So even if there was near term stabilization, intermediate and long term upside will probably become compromised. You need a hard bottom to create a large range upside.

Bad bank is a bad idea. Government doesn't have the firepower to pick up all the bad assets. Even if they do, they will create an artificial floor to distressed assets which in the long run will cause more problems. They should be talking bout a 'good' bank not a 'bad' bank. They are approaching this from the wrong end of the equation.

Selling bad debt to private investors is a bad idea since government is on the hook for insuring against losses. That also sounds like admission of an overstretched government balance sheet.
And if the debt was attractive to private investors, it would have been bought, so the government guarantees are in the end -E/V for taxpayer, and probably +E/V for investor.
Who would turn down free downside insurance? So in the end, not terribly different from bad bank.

Insuring against future losses is a bad idea since it means essentially purchasing bad debt at a bad price AND not entirely participating in the recovery upside, which is an unknown at this point considering they would need to reconstruct the debt securitization industry.

Select bank nationalization, allowing the market to correct and establishing a solid psychological floor, while painful in the short run would be better than a protracted downturn where even the government runs out of bullets as they continue to double down on losing hands.

$NYADV pointing to short term top

2009-02-06T17:36:00.001-08:00

Almost there

2009-02-05T19:58:00.001-08:00

This move off the trendline was much weaker than it should have been considering the morning action.

Unless there is something truly remarkable about the govt plan, would be hard to imagine it generating enough excitement beyond SPY past the high 80's.

Madoff investigation

2009-02-04T23:36:00.000-08:00

Click on title for link through Slope of hope's website.
The lady responding to Ackerman's questions is truly disturbing.
That regulatory board has no clue. And it is unbelievable that even now they are having trouble freezing Madoff's assets.

Second link of Ackerman interviews.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1hRhNdGpq4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAgfznPrCT4&feature=related

$SPX daily - consolidating for the big move down

2009-02-03T23:51:00.000-08:00

If and when this rally moves up to the end of the week, the consolidation may be over. The 2 biggest possibilities seem like a target of 850-860 and 890-900 in $SPX

$TRIN bearish daily chart

2009-02-03T23:50:00.001-08:00

TRIN isnt the greatest indicator but when it falls into the
yellow zone, the market is generally gassed.

CPC - put/call ratio extremely low

2009-02-03T23:48:00.001-08:00

These have generally been followed by 200+ falls in SP500

SPY chart - Jan 30

2009-01-31T11:24:00.001-08:00

Very strong and sustained selling periods. The one at 130 PM was atypical of the quiet midday activity.

$DJUSFN

2009-01-30T00:06:00.000-08:00

Dow Jones Financial Index.
Possible the market rolls over here but would prefer more upside to enter short.

Update 400 pm: Some very strange selling blasts today. There was one in SPY at 130 pm that came out of nowhere. At end of day, all the squeezes were getting chopped down, so the down intermediate term trend seems to be reasserting itself again.

Volume up on a second down day. Bearish.

XLF potential short entry in 1-3 weeks

2009-01-25T16:55:00.000-08:00

Depending on whether we can get a good bounce here.

$TRIN bullish daily chart

2009-01-24T10:52:00.000-08:00

Seems like betting on significant downside has increased risk now that the market has not rolled over. Pulled the plug on my puts Friday since the downside didnt appear to be developing.
The 800 level in SP500 is being defended fiercely.
Thinking now the heavy selling scenario described on Thursday is now on hold but still leaning towards it playing out since we haven't seen a broad-based capitulation yet. I would call last week a 'soft capitulation' since it only involved the financials.

In this TRIN chart which needs some indicator recalibration points towards some bounce over the next week. Green lines indicate bounce points.

Potential 3-5 day heavy selling starting as early as tomorrow

2009-01-22T18:16:00.000-08:00

Although oversold, not super oversold. Stochs have some room to go.
And almost all the indicators are very similar to what we had back on Oct 2 before the market fell off a cliff.
About a week of very heavy selling could be around the corner.
As usual, click the title of this post for the updated chart.

Friday noon: Financials/ Gold/ Commodities made a very strong rebound and followed through, albeit in a choppy manner upwards to the close. The very unstable scenario may have been averted and there is even the possibility of the market retesting previous highs from 2 weeks ago.

$BKX index - 60 min chart

2009-01-14T21:16:00.001-08:00

If we bounce now, I will wait for at least a 1/3 retrace and maybe go short again. Or if we tank to the level mentioned will be looking long for an extremely quick move. If the short spike doesnt occur, I will get out immediately. We are extremely oversold on 60 min timeframe

$SPX weekly- 2 yr

2009-01-11T09:46:00.000-08:00

More signs of a potential intermediate term top

Trying to reinflate the asset bubble

2009-01-10T11:04:00.001-08:00

The gov't is finding that lowering rates isn't enough. So they are buying debt to reinflate the asset bubble. Problem is, the market is too big. Even for the gov't.

There may reach a point where massive nationalization of our financial institutions will need to happen. And I am not talking about the passive, buying preferred shares, 'hope they lend' policy of late.

Create a Noah's ark of lending. Nationalize the a series of banks and force them to lend. The gov't cant save everyone.

Unfortunately, RE/ asset prices need to correct, banks need to fail, inefficient and uncompetitive businesses need to fail before the economy truly recovers.

$NYMO daily 6 mo chart

2009-01-07T21:02:00.000-08:00

Also points at an intermediate term top. If not we are probably only 1 more small, week or 2 long cycle away.

SRS potential entry

2009-01-04T06:52:00.001-08:00

Seems like it is basing for a move up.

XLF potential breakdown

2008-12-31T10:05:00.000-08:00

RSI, stochs maxed out and 2nd lower high.

SPY chart

2008-12-30T21:52:00.000-08:00

This looks a lot like August/ September. Dying volume and the market can barely move up. Thin volume + holiday season should be favorable to an upward market, especially after a severe dip. In January when volume begins to pick up, would be logical that the move would go against the previous mild uptrend. This would argue against much more sideways movement since the market will no longer have the benefit of limited sellers.

The Bollinger Band is also tightening, suggesting a strong break in either direction. Given the weak upward arc and volume, it seems much less likely that a break up will happen.

The large contingent of bullish traders waiting for an Obama rally makes it seem less like that it will happen. If everyone expects it, the more likely everyone will be disappointed.

$CPC Call to put ratio very high

2008-12-30T21:02:00.000-08:00

The last 2 times it was this low, intermediate term tops in the market.

IYR and UWM, relatively healthy...

2008-12-23T22:51:00.000-08:00

These two look OK for now but still setting up within a wedge and tapping the lower trendline too much. Eventually it will break as in the other indexes.

More wobbly charts UYG/ DIA

2008-12-23T22:18:00.000-08:00

QQQQ and SPY looking weak

2008-12-23T21:00:00.000-08:00

There are wedges and weak volume on all the indexes. Some of the wedges have broken. I was thinking that this was a light volume pullback but I think we are just seeing a slo mo breakdown. Maybe we flail around sideways but there doesnt seem to be much upside left.

1. Lots of VIX neg divergence. It is heavy. If VIX cranks up looks like the market will dump.
2. Lot of neg div on MACD also on 60 min charts.
3. Neg divergence btw XLF/ SPY.
4. Lower highs on the 60 min.
5. RSI neg divergence in 60 min charts.

I hope we get a move up since I want to go short now. I am almost growing doubtful whether we even get Obama rall.

Click on this title for updated chart

Potential big move up SPY

2008-12-15T19:37:00.001-08:00

Looks like a very ugly bull flag. I dont like how it fell out of the channel last week but the diminishing volume looks promising.
Does seem like the market is waiting for some kind of news.

If the auto bailout occurs and a solid rate cut, we could see a very large move up in the markets.

But if the big move up doesnt happen within the next couple days, the upward pattern will probably fail.

AAPL short entry

2008-12-09T14:21:00.001-08:00

Potential set up for AAPL short.

Also financials looked weak vs SPY for the first time in several days.

V close- SPY 60 min chart

2008-11-28T18:09:00.000-08:00

Almost there. Busted bailout on Tuesday could be the tipping point.

Multiple convergent reasons for looking for a reversal/ retracement.

-2/3 retracement off of last move down
-close to 92 level resistance level
-92 is exactly completion of CD leg this cycle
-RSI, stochs maxed out on hrly chart
-bond market is slowing no signs of slowing down
-buying volume although steady is dwindling fast
-the Big 3 are probably no going to get Big Money on Tuesday.

Short term Treasury yields

2008-11-27T13:35:00.000-08:00

Negative divergence in the 3 mo, 1 yr, 2 yr yields.
The yields swing around very wildly so not referring to this
heavily but am taking notice.

SPY - potential short entry

2008-11-27T13:15:00.000-08:00

I'm looking to do 1 of 2 things. Im hoping to hit 91-92 in SPY.

1. Friday, very mild sell off, I take a small long into Monday waiting for us to complete the CD pattern/ retrace 2/3. I like the convergence there.

2. Friday, we up go sharply again. End of day I go short.

Now if this set-up fails and the market goes up big on Monday, I fold and will reevaluate. But the dying volume makes me think there is some kind of pullback around the corner.

As for how far we might go down, who knows. But the bond market is acting weird. Dollar rebounded yesterday. And the Markit CMBX, ABX indexes have acting funny also. But I will mainly look at how the financials are doing and volume. If we sell off on bigger volume, I will be leaning towards a bigger drop. If even lesser or equivalent volume, look for more of a retrace and we mightve seen the low for 2008.

So if I see either of these set ups in in. If not I go flat into Monday.

Limitations of neo-classical economic theory

2008-11-27T09:41:00.000-08:00

This is a great article from Ben Bittrolff's blog. Posted below is the first part of the article. Click on this post's title for the link.

If you haven't been there, I highly suggest reading it. He is one of the few people out there who has a handle of both the technical and fundamental sides of the equation. I would reckon he is also an excellent trader.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

From Ben Bittrolff's Blog: Policy Based on Failed Economic Theory: Just Stupid

I can't stress how important it is to understand that economists are relying on hugely flawed theories and models when looking at the economy. Economic policy is being made off the neo-classical theory of economics. This is just a fancy way of describing current mainstream economic theory. This neo-classical theory of economics forms the basis for all the crap your politicians and their advisors keep trying. The greatest failed experiment of this theory is the practical implementation Keynesian and Neo-Keynesian economic policy. Today, right now you are witnessing the implementation of Keynesian theory to its absolute maximum limits with a policy of ZIRP and quantitative easing.

Of course this cannot work and it never has. Neo-classical economic theory is fatally flawed from its very first basic premises. They are:

1) People have rational preferences among outcomes that can be identified and associated with a value.
2) Individuals maximize utility and firms maximize profits.
3) People act independently on the basis of full and relevant information.

This entire theory and all the economic policy that is born of it hinges on these three basic premises. The first one is completely ridiculous and obvious to anybody that isn’t a socially inept, ivory tower, academic, economic nerd. (Clearly these guys have never interacted with the female species in person before. Hahaha.) The assumption is that individuals choose the best action according to stable preference functions and constraints facing them. Simply put, if you prefer beer over liquor you’ll consistently drink beer at parties. No flip flopping allowed. No randomizations allowed. No ‘living in the moment’ allowed. This brings me to premise number two. Individuals maximize utility and firms maximize profits. Basically you drink your beer to the point of being pleasantly buzzed and then you stop. You never get smashed because a massive hangover clearly does not maximize utility. The third premise states that you will act independently and have all the relevant information to make the best choices. This means that you happily drink your beer and won’t get persuaded to do a round of shots with your friends. You clearly know that one round leads to two and you’ve got to work tomorrow. When your drunken friend gives you a stock tip you act independently and only after you’ve figured out everything humanly possible about the company and the industry. You aren’t at all persuaded by the fact that all your friends jumped on the stock and are making a killing. You stay completely level headed all the time.

The fact that we keep going thru economic and financial manias, bubbles and busts does not seem to deter the economic eggheads that continue to employ these theories literally like zealot Bible thumpers.

You’d figure that the Tulip Mania, South Sea Bubble, Dot Com Bubble, and the current Real Estate Bubble (to name a few) would be more than enough evidence to absolutely destroy all three of these premises.

The truly successful traders and investors of course know all this already. They thrive in a chaotic, irrational and uncertain environment.

This Economy Does Not Compute: “A FEW weeks ago, it seemed the financial crisis wouldn’t spin completely out of control. The government knew what it was doing — at least the economic experts were saying so — and the Treasury had taken a stand against saving failing firms, letting Lehman Brothers file for bankruptcy. But since then we’ve had the rescue of the insurance giant A.I.G., the arranged sale of failing banks and we’ll soon see, in one form or another, the biggest taxpayer bailout of Wall Street in history. It seems clear that no one really knows what is coming next. Why?

Well, part of the reason is that economists still try to understand markets by using ideas from traditional economics, especially so-called equilibrium theory. This theory views markets as reflecting a balance of forces, and says that market values change only in response to new information — the sudden revelation of problems about a company, for example, or a real change in the housing supply. Markets are otherwise supposed to have no real internal dynamics of their own. Too bad for the theory, things don’t seem to work that way.

CMBX parabolic spread gets chopped down

2008-11-24T21:21:00.000-08:00

Another reason to think that SRS could slide even more in the coming days.

Spread tightening all across the board from AAA- to A rated indexes.

ABX - AAA bounce?

2008-11-24T21:19:00.000-08:00

This index made a substantial bounce the last 2 days. But what is somewhat alarming is the lack of relative bounce in the AA and A securities.

SKF short

2008-11-23T10:17:00.000-08:00

Friday took a stab via Jan puts. Probably the correct play wouldve been Dec but I'm not a big fan of front end options.

Stoch cross nearing, parabolic move up showed a crack, MACD parabolic, signs of bond market easing.

Then if things look right within a week or two will jump back in with some longer term calls if we see this in the low 100's or lower.

On another note, the positions and holding times taken have been getting extremely short. I sometimes unload options positions within the same day if there is a large favorable move. Until the volume slows down, take your profits and run.

SPY descending expanding wedge - potential rally

2008-11-20T23:08:00.000-08:00

3 mo bond yields are near zero. Stochs are extremely oversold on 60 min timeframes and we have opex tomorrow.

If indeed we get up to 92-94 in SPY with diminishing volume, I will be looking to go all-in short.
It is also possible that there is a bounce only to 82-84 and going back down.

Big rally - BKX daily

2008-11-13T21:48:00.000-08:00

Shorts and puts buyers got crushed today.
Too many ppl calling for doomsday scenarios at the same time.

Looking for roughly a 3 day move up minimum if you include today. Figuring people chasing today's move will keep this going a couple more days. At least tomorrow.
Holding a few SKF puts and will sell if SKF hits that 120-130 range.

Will be looking for the following as sell signals.
1. maxed out 60 min stochs on UYG/ SPY/ QQQQ/ VIX
2. volume decreasing too much
3. bearish comments from upcoming G20 meeting (which I doubt)
4. 97-98 level in SPY which is max pain
5. most importantly, if price movement just looks tired I close my positions.

Bunch of other things will be looking for but I'm too tired to post them all.

Fri morn: Closed SKF puts near the opening. Volume on the morning rally looked very weak. Today's soggy action is not terrible but not encouraging. I was fully expecting 1 more day of upward movement, perhaps afternoon sees a rally.

VIX

2008-11-12T23:29:00.000-08:00

Strong bounce possibility in SPY

2008-11-12T22:06:00.000-08:00

Very strong possibility of a good bounce here.
this set up appears much more promising than the wedge set up from a day ago.

If it occurs, whether it is a rally or just a bounce within the consolidation zone is another matter.

Multiple reasons for a bounce.

1. convergence of trendline and triple support.
2. v oversold on 60 min time frames
3. angle of selling is steady but not steep and similar to the last move down
4. RSI/ CCI below 20
5. OPEX/ G20 meeting upcoming
6. SPY has just completed CD leg which was equal to AB. Within CD leg, another harmonic AB=CD sequence

If support breaks, stop is set around 81-82. This seems almost too set up to be true so if it fails, I will fold immediately and reassess.

Possible bullish wedge on SPY - 30 min chart

2008-11-11T12:19:00.000-08:00

If there is more low volume saucering and a big up move on good volume, SPY could have a solid move up. Would prefer to see one more cycle within the wedge for more confirmation.

$BKX daily

2008-11-06T20:46:00.000-08:00

BKX touched support and also made a 2/3 retrace. Lesser possibility of double bottom. At that point would look for a strong rebound.

66% retrace completed

2008-11-06T19:39:00.000-08:00

Got the 2/3 retrace to go long.
60 min stochs, RSI, CCI are maxed out and tweaking a bit upward.

Volume steady but nothing alarming.

If tomorrow is not an up day by the morning, the decision to let go of long positions will be an easy one.

Seems like market selling off ahead of jobs report. Anything non catastrophic might be interpreted as good news. Obama also speaking.

50-66% Retrace - SPY

2008-11-04T18:27:00.000-08:00

Looking for a 2-4 day post election retrace of 50%-66% to roughly 88-92 in SPY.
Leaning less towards a reversal than a corrective retrace.

Economic calendar for rest of week

Thurs- jobless 830 am, production 830 am
Fri-Employment 830, pending home sales 1000, consumer credit 300

Not exactly sure where I will flip to go long but will follow the 60 min CCI, stochs, and volume to get a gauge on things and wait for a bounce. The lower selling volume the more likely I will be looking at long positions.

If market stabilizes for next 1-2 weeks, upwards for the intermediate term

2008-10-29T23:22:00.000-07:00

Once all the popcorn is popped, I anticipate a very choppy rally.
And filling the gap around 110.

The one thing that makes lean towards we are in a bottoming process is the fact that the bull/ bear battle has not been won by either side. It has only been bloody.

Oct 21 a bullish inverted head and shoulders/ W pattern that failed. Very bearish.

Oct 28 a 2nd retest on lows that failed to break down. V bullish.

Right now, just more choppiness.

The credit situation is easing somewhat so that is definitely a positive factor for the markets. And we know that we are in a recession for sure, it is priced in. Not that I believe recovery is around the corner, there will be forward looking people looking to scoop up from what's left from the carnage.

Going into neutral/ bullish stance...

2008-10-29T21:27:00.000-07:00

The market is incredibly whippy right now. And I need a break.

I am pretty neutral now although if we crack the lower level of support in SPY around 84 we will probably crash hard. Conversely if we break above 100-105 we would be in the clear. That's a big range to trade if you are alert. But it will probably be messy.

The 2 reasons are these. One is the heavy volume that is making it hard for shorts or longs to move for more than a couple days. The other is the upcoming election. Seems like the market keeps getting saved right when you think is it going to go under...

If we dont break previous lows, I do think we could form a base here and eventually crawl back up.

But for now I am only going to being playing v short time frames.

SPY bottom not here yet

2008-10-24T18:28:00.000-07:00

Stochs still havent bottomed on SPY, RSI still has room to go down.
But the big one is SPY volume. It hasnt maxed out yet.
I will be v surprised if we dont bottom without a volume around 1 billion or more.

SPY pattern failed

2008-10-22T21:12:00.000-07:00

Got stopped out of my SSO the last hr of trading yesterday and only managed to get the down move via SDS after the open. I now think this trading range has not been a move up but consolidation for another move down.

On any bounce will be looking to short aggressively.

Why? The huge volume bars on the 15, 30, and 60 min chart on SPY towards close amongst other things.

VIX

2008-10-21T09:41:00.001-07:00

MACD cross back down and a v small uptick in VIX today despite a decent sized sell off.

Has been consolidating for a long time and is showing signs of exhaustion.

Either that or we are going to hit the 90's. But as time passes becomes less and less likely.

The neat clean almost parabolic trajectory has been completely ruined.

Considering the choppiness of the recent activitym it could mean a v choppy move back up in the general markets.

SPY 30 min chart

2008-10-21T09:37:00.000-07:00

Inverted head and shoulders setting up for a solid retrace back up in the general indexes. Volume is lightening up and volatility is down which is good for the bulls. But if this pattern does fail, could be a big drop.

either way an easy fold if SPY drops below 95. So risk to reward ratio is quite good.

VIX dropping, credit markets thawings albeit prob temporarily, and who knows maybe even a surprise beat the estimates earnings...

When to short the next big leg down...

2008-10-12T16:19:00.000-07:00

Assuming the market makes the stiff rebound this week then saucers on dwindling volume over the next few weeks/ months, Im looking for a selling blip on vol that breaks its trendline. Then start scaling into my short positions.

$BPFINA at 0%

2008-10-11T13:16:00.000-07:00

There are no bulls.
0% bullish. We had big volume on Friday and the short boat is getting very crowded.
Expect a huge squeeze early in the week.
Or the apocalypse!